December 15, 2025 — Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR)—the company formerly known as MicroStrategy—was back in the spotlight Monday after disclosing another near–$1 billion Bitcoin purchase. The twist: despite the buying spree, Strategy stock fell sharply alongside Bitcoin, underscoring the market’s growing focus on how the company funds its crypto accumulation—and what index providers may do next.

As of late Monday trading, MSTR was around $164, down roughly 7% on the day, while Bitcoin traded near $86,200, down roughly 3%.

What happened on Dec. 15: Strategy discloses another 10,645 BTC purchase

In a Form 8‑K filed December 15, Strategy reported that it acquired 10,645 bitcoins during the week of Dec. 8–Dec. 14 for an aggregate purchase price of $980.3 million, paying an average of $92,098 per BTC (including fees and expenses). ^[1]

That brought Strategy’s total holdings to 671,268 BTC, with an aggregate purchase price of about $50.33 billion and an average purchase price of $74,972 per BTC. ^[2]

Those numbers matter because they frame Strategy’s identity in today’s market: whatever the software business is doing, MSTR’s share price behavior is still dominated by Bitcoin exposure—especially as accounting rules now run Bitcoin price changes straight through earnings (more on that below). ^[3]

The key pressure point: the Bitcoin was funded with stock (and preferred stock) sales

The same 8‑K also detailed sales under Strategy’s at‑the‑market (ATM) offering programs, which is where much of the controversy—and the “why is the stock down?” confusion—comes from.

For the Dec. 8–Dec. 14 period, Strategy reported selling:

• 4,789,664 shares of MSTR common stock for $888.2 million in net proceeds
• STRD preferred: 1,029,202 shares, $82.2 million net proceeds
• STRF preferred: 163,306 shares, $18.0 million net proceeds
• STRK preferred: 7,036 shares, $0.6 million net proceeds

Total reported net proceeds: $989.0 million. ^[4]

The filing also disclosed remaining issuance capacity across these ATM programs—numbers that signal Strategy could keep raising capital for further Bitcoin buys (and could keep diluting common shareholders in the process). ^[5]

Market commentary on Monday repeatedly returned to the same idea: buying Bitcoin is not automatically “good for MSTR” if the per‑share claim on that Bitcoin is shrinking. Several analyses of the day’s move pointed directly to dilution and sustainability concerns around repeated equity/debt issuance to fund purchases. ^[6]

Why Strategy stock fell even though Strategy bought more Bitcoin

The market’s reaction on Dec. 15 can be boiled down to three forces that all hit at once:

1) Bitcoin fell—dragging MSTR with it

Strategy is widely treated as a levered Bitcoin proxy, and Monday’s price action fit that playbook: Bitcoin slipped below key psychological levels (mid‑$80Ks), and Strategy shares sold off in tandem. ^[7]

2) Dilution math is starting to dominate the narrative

Strategy explicitly said the Bitcoin purchases were funded using proceeds from its ATM sales programs. ^[8]

That creates a simple investor worry: if the company issues shares fast enough, each share’s “look‑through” exposure to Bitcoin may not improve, even if total BTC held rises. Monday’s selloff commentary leaned hard on that concept—especially after another week of very large issuance. ^[9]

3) Index-provider risk resurfaced as a real, near-term catalyst

There’s also a structural overhang: if big index providers decide Strategy looks more like a crypto holding vehicle than an operating company, index eligibility could change—and index changes can force passive funds to sell. ^[10]

That matters not just psychologically, but mechanically: passive ownership can be a meaningful source of demand in mega benchmarks.

Nasdaq 100 update: Strategy keeps its seat—for now

Strategy’s index status has been a running storyline this month because the company sits in an unusual category: a software company by history, a Bitcoin-treasury company by market behavior.

Last week, Reuters reported that some analysts believed Strategy was at risk of being removed from the Nasdaq 100 during the annual reshuffle, with estimates suggesting removal could trigger about $1.6 billion in passive fund outflows. ^[11]

But in the end, Strategy remained in the Nasdaq 100, according to Reuters reporting on the reshuffle outcome. The Nasdaq’s index changes are set to take effect December 22. ^[12]

The “kept in” outcome removed one immediate tail risk, but it didn’t erase the broader debate: whether digital-asset-heavy treasury companies belong in traditional equity benchmarks in the first place. ^[13]

The next big date: MSCI’s decision (Jan. 15) and the “50% digital assets” rule

Even with the Nasdaq question temporarily resolved, another index provider is still in focus: MSCI.

Multiple reports in recent days have centered on MSCI’s review of whether to exclude companies whose digital assets exceed 50% of total assets—a threshold that critics call arbitrary but that MSCI is reportedly considering as it weighs whether these firms resemble operating companies or fund-like vehicles. ^[14]

A Schwab Network report citing Strategy CEO Phong Le said MSCI’s final decision is expected January 15, and referenced JPMorgan estimates suggesting billions of dollars in potential outflows if exclusion triggered forced selling by passive and benchmark-tied holders. ^[15]

Whether or not those outflow numbers ultimately prove accurate, the important point for investors is this: MSCI index inclusion/exclusion can create price-insensitive flows, and in a stock as volatile as MSTR, that can amplify swings.

Company forecasts: Strategy cut its year-end Bitcoin assumption to $85K–$110K

Strategy’s own “forecast” story in December is unusually explicit—and unusually tied to Bitcoin.

On Dec. 1, Strategy announced it had established a $1.44 billion USD Reserve to support dividend and interest payments, funded via common stock sales. ^[16]

In the same release, Strategy updated the assumptions behind its FY2025 guidance. It said its earlier guidance had assumed a $150,000 Bitcoin price at year-end, but due to Bitcoin’s decline since late October, it updated its year-end assumption to a range of $85,000 to $110,000. ^[17]

Based on that Bitcoin range, Strategy published wide operating ranges for FY2025 results, including:

• Operating income (loss): ~$(7.0)B to $9.5B
• Net income (loss): ~$(5.5)B to $6.3B
• Diluted EPS: ~$(17) to $19 ^[18]

It also updated its Bitcoin KPI targets, including a BTC Yield Target of 22%–26% and a BTC $ Gain Target of $8.4B–$12.8B, while emphasizing how sensitive results are to Bitcoin’s market price. ^[19]

This is one reason MSTR can feel “weird” compared with normal software equities: earnings sensitivity is being openly presented as a function of the Bitcoin price at the measurement date. ^[20]

Wall Street forecasts: bullish targets—but an unusually wide spread

Analyst forecasts for Strategy remain headline-grabbing—mostly because they’re effectively forecasts on Bitcoin plus leverage plus capital markets access.

One widely cited consensus set (MarketBeat) lists:

• Average 12‑month price target: $475.80
• High target: $705
• Low target: $54
• Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” (with most ratings in buy territory) ^[21]

Another aggregator view (Finviz) displayed a target price near $497.71 along with a history of upgrades/downgrades from multiple firms—again highlighting that targets can vary sharply depending on assumptions about Bitcoin, dilution, and capital structure. ^[22]

The gap between the high and low targets is extreme by normal large-cap standards—and that’s arguably the point: MSTR is not being valued like a steady cash-flow software business. It’s being valued like a volatile, finance-like instrument with equity, preferred stock, and Bitcoin intertwined.

The “software company” question isn’t going away

Index providers and analysts keep circling one uncomfortable fact: Strategy’s legacy software revenue is small compared with its Bitcoin footprint.

Reuters noted that Strategy’s results benefited heavily from Bitcoin-related accounting and that software revenue was only $128.7 million in the referenced period—fueling the argument that the company increasingly resembles a Bitcoin holding vehicle rather than a classic tech operating company. ^[23]

That’s not just semantic. It affects:

• benchmark and index eligibility decisions,
• how investors model risk (crypto volatility vs. enterprise software cycles), and
• the cost of funding (because Strategy’s capital raises are now part of the operating “engine”). ^[24]

What investors are watching next

With the dust still in the air from Monday’s selloff, the next catalysts are fairly clear—and most of them are macro/structural rather than “product” related:

• Bitcoin’s range around the mid‑$80Ks to $90K: MSTR has traded like a high-beta wrapper on BTC, and Monday reinforced that sensitivity. ^[25]
• Further ATM issuance: Strategy’s own filings show the company has been actively selling common and preferred shares to finance purchases, and it disclosed substantial remaining issuance capacity. ^[26]
• MSCI’s January decision (expected Jan. 15): If MSCI tightens rules around digital-asset-heavy companies, passive flow effects could become a real factor again. ^[27]
• Debt and dividend obligations: Recent reporting around Strategy’s reserve fund emphasized the purpose: ensuring the company can meet ongoing dividend/interest payments through potential “crypto winter” conditions, with longer-dated debt maturities still on the horizon. ^[28]

Bottom line

On Dec. 15, 2025, Strategy delivered exactly what its market persona promises: another massive Bitcoin buy, disclosed in an SEC filing—followed immediately by a stock drop driven by Bitcoin weakness, dilution concerns, and index eligibility anxiety.

If there’s a single “tell” investors should take from the day, it’s this: the market is no longer reacting to “Strategy bought Bitcoin” as inherently bullish. It’s reacting to the terms of that buying—share issuance, funding costs, and whether the structure still increases per-share exposure over time. ^[29]

References

1. www.sec.gov, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.strategy.com, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. finviz.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. finviz.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. schwabnetwork.com, 15. schwabnetwork.com, 16. www.strategy.com, 17. www.strategy.com, 18. www.strategy.com, 19. www.strategy.com, 20. www.strategy.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. finviz.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. schwabnetwork.com, 28. www.strategy.com, 29. www.sec.gov