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Crypto analytics platform Swissblock says bitcoin is sliding into a high-risk environment, driven by continued institutional selling through US spot exchange-traded funds and renewed geopolitical tension.

Swissblock’s risk index flashes warning

Swissblock reported Tuesday that its Bitcoin risk index reached a score of 33 out of 100, placing the asset firmly in high-risk territory.

The platform stated:

“Every time the Risk Index signals that selling pressure is structurally overwhelming the market, what sits underneath is institutional distribution.”

After strong accumulation in March and April, May has flipped back into distribution mode.

Swissblock added that spot Bitcoin ETF demand is no longer absorbing selling pressure effectively, warning:

The risk index can continue accelerating higher without strong ETF support underneath.

Glassnode and CoinEx flag persistent outflows

On-chain analytics provider Glassnode reported Monday that US Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows on nearly every trading day since May 7, calling it “a persistent institutional sell signal now running for more than two weeks.”

Glassnode noted:

“This steady drip of outflow continues to add to the supply side without a visible demand offset.”

Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, told Cointelegraph that the broader crypto market “remains in a holding pattern,” adding:

“Spot ETF flows have posted more than $2 billion in outflows over the past two weeks, highlighting that institutional risk appetite is still sensitive at the margin.”

Iran strikes add to selling pressure

Risk accelerated further Tuesday morning after reports emerged that the US had launched fresh strikes on Iran, targeting Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to place mines, which US Central Command described as “self-defense” actions.

Bitcoin reacted with a roughly 1% decline, falling from over $77,000 to just below $76,500 on Coinbase, though the asset has remained largely range-bound for nearly four months.

Ko noted that despite the strike:

The very short-term market reaction may still lean risk-on, particularly as investors appear to be looking through the geopolitical noise and focusing on the possibility of a US-Iran peace deal.

Original Article