Tesla’s FSD Safety Metrics ‘Sharply Deteriorating,’ Says Analyst
March 11, 2026
Gordon Johnson, analyst at GLJ Research, is sounding the alarm on Tesla Inc..
Using third-party Full Self-Driving (FSD) Community Tracker data, Johnson says Tesla’s critical disengagement metrics have collapsed. The tracker measures “city miles to critical disengagement” — a key safety benchmark.
According to Johnson’s post on X, the metric peaked at 4,109 city miles per critical disengagement when FSD v14.1 hit its high in October 2025. After v14.2 rolled out, that figure cratered to just 809.
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Notably, CEO Elon Musk has personally interacted with the same tracker data Johnson cites.
1/3 According to third-party-sourced $TSLA FSD Community Tracker data, data which @elonmusk has interacted w/ himself, FSD is sharply deteriorating on a “city miles to critical disengagement” basis, going from 4,109 to 809 since FSD v14.1 peaked Oct. 2025 & v14.2 was rolled out. pic.twitter.com/0xitZQDzpx
Johnson didn’t stop at the numbers. He put them in sharp context.
While Tesla is at 809 city miles to critical disengagement, Alphabet Inc.-backed Waymo did not remove safety drivers from behind the wheel until reaching 30,000 city miles, Johnson noted.
That’s a gap of more than 37 times between the two autonomous platforms on this metric.
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Johnson’s raised a direct question about why the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is allowing the situation to occur on public roads.
Tesla, for its part, published safety data in February showing its Supervised FSD has covered over 8.2 billion miles, including 3 billion in city driving. The company claims its FSD causes “7X” fewer major collisions versus human drivers.
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