Our model finds that raising the plan’s solar capacity targets by 89% and battery storage by 60% can help Thailand save $1.8 billion in power generation costs by 2037. This is despite the cost-optimal pathway requiring a higher total fixed expenditure of $168 billion over 2024 to 2037. But, given that it cuts gas imports equivalent to almost two times Thailand’s 2024 consumption, it saves nearly $16 billion in fuel costs. At the same time, the country’s ambitions of becoming a hub for EVs and data centres remain unaffected. 

Ember’s proposed cost-optimal pathways also fit well with Thailand’s economic goals, as its export-oriented manufacturing strategy, rising demand from data centres and EV adoption require more clean energy. Global markets increasingly seek products with low carbon footprints. Aligning the power system with such trends is imperative to maintaining global competitiveness. 

Despite factoring in higher EV charging and data centre electricity demand than the RPDP, our cost-optimal pathway finds that more solar and batteries can reliably meet the demand. Instead of adding more fossil fuel capacity and locking in capital with a stranded asset risk, diverting it to solar and batteries will better serve the country’s interests. 

The pathway is achievable with the right policy changes that prioritise solar and battery storage, plan for flexible power systems, reduce fossil fuel imports and improve demand forecasting.