You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.
Friends,
The NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index has dropped 21.4% so far in 2025 to 5.41, extending the bear market in cannabis stocks to more than four years. The largest cannabis ETF, AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), has dropped 33.9%. Tough times remain, as it appears that 280E taxation will be sticking around.
I continue to worry greatly about MSOS, but my fear that it will face redemptions again has not really played out yet. Yes, the shares outstanding have dropped by 3.4% since early March, but they remain up year-to-date by 1.2%.
MSOs and many other types of cannabis stocks seem very cheap, but capital available to them remains very tight. Some cannabis operators have moved to address their debt by going into receivership already. While this doesn’t seem like a near-term risk for the 5 largest MSOs, they all do have net debt that could challenge them.
The MSOS ETF holds positions in these 5 largest MSOs that total 79.5%. and the exposure to Green Thumb Industries (29.5%), Trulieve (22.5%) and Curaleaf (14.1%), totals 66.1%. The NCV GCSI index includes these 5 largest MSOs and one other, and the total exposure right now is 24.6%. My model portfolio that I share with subscribers at 420 Investor has 22.8% MSO exposure, and it holds no GTBIF, TCNNF or CURLF.
These three stocks are off their lows from April, but they are all trending lower. Year-to-date, Trulieve is outpacing the GCSI and MSOS, falling 19.2% so far, while Curaleaf, down 45.0%, has dropped more than both. GTI, down 33.8% in 2025, has declined more than the GCSI and similarly to MSOS. Here is the action on all three stocks in Q2, with MSOS down 3.5% and the Global Cannabis Stock Index up 7.6%:
GTI has dropped the most in Q2 and is testing its lows set in April. Curaleaf is down but not yet that close to the low. Trulieve is up, but it has dropped 18% from its recent peak on 4/30. Of course, these stocks are down a lot more from 4/30/24, which was the peak of 2024.
Note that the shares outstanding at MSOS are down 2% so far in Q2, but GTI shares controlled by the ETF have dropped by 5.1%. Trulieve shares controlled by the ETF have declined by 1.8%, and Curaleaf shares have decreased by 1.4%
Looking back to November 5th, the day of the elections and the defeat of adult-use in Florida, these MSOs have fallen a lot:
GTI, which has the best balance sheet, has dropped the least, losing a little over half its value. Trulieve has declined by 65%, and Curaleaf, which has a lot of net debt, has declined by 71%.
Looking at these three alphabetically, Curaleaf seems to be at great risk if 280E remains. It has very negative tangible book value, and lots of net debt. The enterprise value to projected adjusted EBITDA for 2025 seems cheap at 4.0X, but very risky. The stock is way up off its lows set in April. To me, it looks like there is support about 10% below the current price of $0.8949 at $0.80.
GTI is perceived by many to be a solid operator. It has just a little net debt and trades at an enterprise value of 3.9X projected adjusted EBITDA for 2025. I think that there are some challenges that go beyond its massive exposure in MSOS, including slow growth, the inability to buy failing MSOs due to state regulations on the number of stores or production facility size, and its very high adjusted EBITDA margins (30.4% projected for 2025). The stock, which closed at $5.21, could be in trouble if it can’t hold $5.00.
Trulieve, which has been the best performer of the three in 2025 so far, looks the cheapest at an enterprise value to projected adjusted EBITDA for 2025 of just 2.3X, but enterprise value excludes the massive tax liabilities the company has on its balance sheet. Its margin, boosted by its exposure to vertically-integrated Florida, is sky-high at 34.5%. it is testing $4 and could find support near $3.50, well above the intraday low of $3.02 in early April.
Speaking of Florida, each of these companies is active in the state, which has a very mature and competitive medical cannabis market. Overall sales have been declining despite strong unit sales expansion. Trulieve is massive in its home-state, while Curaleaf is very large in that market. GTI is there, but it is much smaller.
For investors in these three stocks, 280E going away would help them greatly. There are other MSOs that could make sense, and there are other parts of the cannabis market that appear to have less risk and good opportunities.
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past week:
Capital Raises
Ascend Wellness Raises $50 Million
To get real-time updates, like our Facebook page, or follow Alan on Twitter. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.
View the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, which ranks the top revenue producing cannabis stocks.
Stay on top of some of the most important communications from public companies by viewing upcoming cannabis investor earnings conference calls.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community
420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At
New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at
Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a
frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan:
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In This Article:
280E, aawh, AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF, ascend wellness, cura, Curaleaf, curlf, gtbif, Gti, gtreen thumb industries, msos, tcnnf, TRUL, trulieve
You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.
Friends,
The NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index has dropped 21.4% so far in 2025 to 5.41, extending the bear market in cannabis stocks to more than four years. The largest cannabis ETF, AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), has dropped 33.9%. Tough times remain, as it appears that 280E taxation will be sticking around.
I continue to worry greatly about MSOS, but my fear that it will face redemptions again has not really played out yet. Yes, the shares outstanding have dropped by 3.4% since early March, but they remain up year-to-date by 1.2%.
MSOs and many other types of cannabis stocks seem very cheap, but capital available to them remains very tight. Some cannabis operators have moved to address their debt by going into receivership already. While this doesn’t seem like a near-term risk for the 5 largest MSOs, they all do have net debt that could challenge them.
The MSOS ETF holds positions in these 5 largest MSOs that total 79.5%. and the exposure to Green Thumb Industries (29.5%), Trulieve (22.5%) and Curaleaf (14.1%), totals 66.1%. The NCV GCSI index includes these 5 largest MSOs and one other, and the total exposure right now is 24.6%. My model portfolio that I share with subscribers at 420 Investor has 22.8% MSO exposure, and it holds no GTBIF, TCNNF or CURLF.
These three stocks are off their lows from April, but they are all trending lower. Year-to-date, Trulieve is outpacing the GCSI and MSOS, falling 19.2% so far, while Curaleaf, down 45.0%, has dropped more than both. GTI, down 33.8% in 2025, has declined more than the GCSI and similarly to MSOS. Here is the action on all three stocks in Q2, with MSOS down 3.5% and the Global Cannabis Stock Index up 7.6%:
GTI has dropped the most in Q2 and is testing its lows set in April. Curaleaf is down but not yet that close to the low. Trulieve is up, but it has dropped 18% from its recent peak on 4/30. Of course, these stocks are down a lot more from 4/30/24, which was the peak of 2024.
Note that the shares outstanding at MSOS are down 2% so far in Q2, but GTI shares controlled by the ETF have dropped by 5.1%. Trulieve shares controlled by the ETF have declined by 1.8%, and Curaleaf shares have decreased by 1.4%
Looking back to November 5th, the day of the elections and the defeat of adult-use in Florida, these MSOs have fallen a lot:
GTI, which has the best balance sheet, has dropped the least, losing a little over half its value. Trulieve has declined by 65%, and Curaleaf, which has a lot of net debt, has declined by 71%.
Looking at these three alphabetically, Curaleaf seems to be at great risk if 280E remains. It has very negative tangible book value, and lots of net debt. The enterprise value to projected adjusted EBITDA for 2025 seems cheap at 4.0X, but very risky. The stock is way up off its lows set in April. To me, it looks like there is support about 10% below the current price of $0.8949 at $0.80.
GTI is perceived by many to be a solid operator. It has just a little net debt and trades at an enterprise value of 3.9X projected adjusted EBITDA for 2025. I think that there are some challenges that go beyond its massive exposure in MSOS, including slow growth, the inability to buy failing MSOs due to state regulations on the number of stores or production facility size, and its very high adjusted EBITDA margins (30.4% projected for 2025). The stock, which closed at $5.21, could be in trouble if it can’t hold $5.00.
Trulieve, which has been the best performer of the three in 2025 so far, looks the cheapest at an enterprise value to projected adjusted EBITDA for 2025 of just 2.3X, but enterprise value excludes the massive tax liabilities the company has on its balance sheet. Its margin, boosted by its exposure to vertically-integrated Florida, is sky-high at 34.5%. it is testing $4 and could find support near $3.50, well above the intraday low of $3.02 in early April.
Speaking of Florida, each of these companies is active in the state, which has a very mature and competitive medical cannabis market. Overall sales have been declining despite strong unit sales expansion. Trulieve is massive in its home-state, while Curaleaf is very large in that market. GTI is there, but it is much smaller.
For investors in these three stocks, 280E going away would help them greatly. There are other MSOs that could make sense, and there are other parts of the cannabis market that appear to have less risk and good opportunities.
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past week:
Capital Raises
Ascend Wellness Raises $50 Million
To get real-time updates, like our Facebook page, or follow Alan on Twitter. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.
View the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, which ranks the top revenue producing cannabis stocks.
Stay on top of some of the most important communications from public companies by viewing upcoming cannabis investor earnings conference calls.
Get Our Sunday Newsletter
In This Article:
280E, aawh, AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF, ascend wellness, cura, Curaleaf, curlf, gtbif, Gti, gtreen thumb industries, msos, tcnnf, TRUL, trulieve
Related News:
Ascend Wellness Raises $50 Million
A Look at the Cannabis Stock Winners and Losers
Q1 Cannabis Financial Updates Fail to Impress
Michigan Cannabis Sales Fall Again in April