Energy Innovation,a nonpartisan climate policy think tank, estimates that if Trump’s tax bill goes into effect, the country could lose 790,000 clean energy jobs by 2030. For instance, in Texas, the repeal of the IRA is projected to lead to the loss of over 115,000 jobs by 2035, along with a $20.32 billion decrease in the state’s GDP. “Texas, California, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Georgia stand out as the biggest losers from IRA repeal due to their poor combination of lost jobs and increased household energy costs.”

The Credit Brings In Deals

The main target is Section 45X, the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit. This credit has helped America bring solar, battery, and wind supply chains closer to home. It’s attracted billions of dollars in investment for states like Georgia, Texas, and Ohio, often in Republican-led areas. Trump’s bill would eliminate these credits, freezing hiring and stopping factory construction in the middle of projects.

Electric vehicles are also in the crosshairs. The bill would ditch the credits for them, although these breaks would be available for U.S.-made cars. However, policy experts warn that many parts inside the vehicles are foreign-made. Given the global supply chain, it is nearly impossible for a car to be wholly produced in this country.

Meanwhile, the tax bill would also nix the federal tax incentive under Section 30C, which encourages the installation of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. The credit reduces the cost by 30% and is now available through 2032.

“Prematurely eliminating 30C will take options away from drivers, especially in rural and underserved communities where fueling choices are already scarce,” says Jamie Hall, Director of Policy for EV Realty, in an email. “This abrupt policy shift will slow EV adoption, increase pollution levels, and threaten construction, engineering, and electrical jobs across the country by pulling the rug out from under projects already under development.”

Then, there’s the potential elimination of the 30% investment tax credit for solar installations. “We need a stable regulatory framework,” says Aspen Power’s Vargas. “Don’t take a wrecking ball to it; instead, use a scalpel.”

NextEra Energy, First Solar, and Sunrun are among the clean energy and solar companies that could be impacted. At the same time, IRA incentives for battery manufacturing and domestic sourcing have bolstered Tesla’s margins and U.S. production scale, all of which would disappear if this bill passes.

The Impact On Energy Markets?

Trump defends the legislation as a way to cut federal spending and return to “free market principles.” He reasons that the energy market should thrive by rolling back clean energy incentives. But here’s the catch: the fossil fuel industry still gets many subsidies, while the more nimble clean energy sector, which is growing faster and creating more jobs, would be left to fend for itself.

Fossil fuels benefit from substantial direct and indirect subsidies. Oil Change International calculates that the United States spends about $20.5 billion annually on fossil fuel subsidies. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that federal subsidies for renewable energy totaled $15.6 billion in 2022.

CEO Vargas says the biggest irony is that the landowners who hosted his solar projects voted for Trump in 2020. They are now some of the leading green energy advocates; solar farms provide the revenue they need to keep farming and the power to energize their complexes. Although Trump may have convinced Red districts of a “Green New ‘Scam,’” many now champion the cause because they profit.

“Leasing our land for solar has brought financial stability to our fourth-generation family farm,” says Judy King, a Mercer County, Pa., property owner, in an email. “It provides a reliable yearly source of income that helps us plan for the long term—covering expenses, making improvements, and ensuring the land remains productive and intact for future generations. We didn’t have strong opinions about renewable energy before this project.” But they learned about solar and voted to proceed, which they say also serves the environment and the community.

The economic benefits are one aspect. The environmental advantages are another. The Rhodium Group estimates the U.S. will produce 500-730 million metric tons of additional greenhouse gases by 2035 if Congress repeals parts of the IRA.

Even if this tax bill is revised, it sends a troubling message: policy commitments to a cleaner, more competitive energy economy can be reversed overnight. Investors need certainty, innovation requires stability, and U.S. policy in the next-generation energy economy must incorporate both. The practical effect of such sudden strategic changes is that they will impede the transition to green power, making energy more costly and much dirtier.