It’s funny because on Monday, at the NYC media summit, I was asked how I’d describe the state of crypto today. I said, “Crypto’s growing up.” You can see it in the regulatory wins, in how many companies have gone or are preparing to go public, in the steady inflow of institutional capital, and even in Jamie Dimon’s evolving tone. His latest line comparing owning bitcoin to the right to smoke is about as close to tolerant as he’s ever been. And you can definitely see it in the rising number of suits roaming around crypto conferences.

Now we’re seeing it in the price action. As several analysts pointed out this week, bitcoin slipping below $100,000 for the first time since June isn’t bear market territory, it’s evidence the asset has entered what you might call its boring adulthood. That’s a tough adjustment for an industry built on 20% daily candles, “to the moon” chants and the promise of “life-changing wealth.”

Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, captured the shift bluntly: “the days of 1000x, 100x, or even possibly 10x gains in BTC are probably over.” He also revised his year-end price target from $185,000 to $120,000—not because the thesis has fallen apart, but because the market structure has changed.

The data is striking. Galaxy estimates that more than 470,000 coins, worth $50 billion in total, held for at least five years have changed hands just this year. Combined with last year, it’s the largest migration of old supply in bitcoin’s history. These aren’t people capitulating. These are holders who have been around since bitcoin was a hobbyist experiment and can finally sell in size without blowing out the market thanks to the “institutionalization.”

That’s where investor Jordi Visser’s framing becomes useful. He calls this moment bitcoin’s “silent IPO.” Not literally, of course, but economically. Early holders are distributing to newer, more risk-managed buyers. Anyone who has watched a company go public will recognize the pattern: a slow, orderly handoff as long-term insiders take profits and new owners step in. Meanwhile, the asset becomes less volatile.

That churn is what’s confusing people now, writes Visser. Everything else—tech stocks, gold, the Nasdaq—is rallying. Bitcoin isn’t participating in the mania, and that’s unusual for an asset that used to trade as the high-beta expression of risk appetite.