The Fed is also in ‘wait and see’ mode about AI taking jobs

June 20, 2025

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This time will be different.

That’s the message we’re hearing from corporate executives commanding the AI charge and from other leaders whose fields will likely be altered by the newfangled rush of automation.

In a memo to employees earlier this week, Amazon (AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that will lead to a smaller workforce at the company, the nation’s second-largest private employer, because of efficiency gains.

For corporations, the mood is growth, productivity, and shareholder value. But the news added fuel to the fiery concerns that AI will massively displace workers.

The concern that machines will take jobs isn’t new, of course. But the scope of change, and the potential for new modes of labor and invention, are driving the latest bout of anxiety in workers — amid the corporate excitement for employers.

The current labor market, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed Wednesday, is solid. But the Fed is watching this space closely.

Board Governor Michael Barr, in a speech at the Reykjavík Economic Conference last month, outlined a scenario where AI doesn’t just inspire incremental progress but overhauls the economy, prompting sweeping social change.

“The amazing potential capabilities and breadth of applications associated with AI — many of which are already apparent — make it worth asking whether this time may be different,” Barr said. “But alongside the kinds of labor market disruptions seen in past episodes of revolutionary technological change, we will need to consider the possibility of more sweeping changes in the way we work.”

In his press conference Wednesday, responding to a question about the Amazon news, Fed Chair Powell stressed that the question is about whether the technology will “augment” or “replace” labor, which is “really hard to know.”

But, Powell stressed, “I wouldn’t overread a couple of data points, because AI should be creating jobs at the same time.”

It’s not clear yet how drastic the AI-inspired labor changes will be, but the data points are coming in and will continue.

And the Fed, again in the “wait and see” mode afforded by a healthy labor market, can count them.

“We don’t have a house view on [AI taking jobs],” Powell said. “But this is going to be a very important question for some time.”

Whether by design or as a consequence of adopting and pushing AI, the idea of boosting productivity while shrinking payroll has certainly pervaded corporate America. The biggest companies across the country are constricting their workforces.

Big Tech’s “efficiency” push is perhaps the clearest example. Megacap, cash-rich companies are touting growth and still driving S&P 500 earnings. But they aren’t hiring like they used to. That dynamic has denied classes of workers, like recent college grads, a ramp into the labor force.

As my colleague Josh Schafer has reported, the labor market isn’t as strong as it appears. While a lot of people still have their jobs, it’s tough going for those unemployed and looking for work.

Or, as this newsletter put it recently, the labor market is creating new jobs, but maybe not yours. The number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis has climbed to elevated levels in recent weeks. Still, as Powell pointed out on Wednesday, the layoffs and the unemployment rate remain very low.

At the same time, the market got another data point this week in the form of just how much companies are willing to pay for AI experts, a signal of how transformative many executives believe it will be to the future of work. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed on his brother’s “Uncapped” podcast that Meta attempted to poach “a lot of people on our team” with astronomical signing bonuses of $100 million.

There’s always room in the budget for the right person. But also, it seems, for the right machine.

Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban.

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