“The world is moving toward decarbonization, but the promise of clean energy has become a battlefield among powers, corporations, and peoples who guard the raw materials.”

The 20th century was ruled by oil. Wars, dictatorships, empires, and corporations grew in its shadow. The 21st century already has new contenders. Lithium and hydrogen stand as the keys to the energy transition that promises to save the planet from climate collapse. The paradox is brutal. What is presented as clean energy drags along the same old tensions of power, plunder, and inequality.

Climate change demands urgent emission reductions. The International Energy Agency warns that by 2030 renewable energy must triple and the production of critical minerals must increase sixfold. Every solar panel, every battery, every electrolyzer depends on raw materials unevenly distributed. While the industrialized North designs decarbonization strategies, the Global South once again delivers its subsoil and its water.

Lithium, concentrated in a handful of countries, and green hydrogen, which requires territories rich in sun and wind, have become the new frontiers of capital. From the Andean salt flats to African deserts, from Chilean coasts to refineries in Germany and Japan, a map of projects is being drawn that promises billion-dollar investments and also irreversible impacts.

The question is inevitable. Will the energy transition be an opportunity for global justice, or a new chapter of colonialism disguised in green? The answer will define not only the future of energy, but the fate of humanity in the decades to come.

Lithium and the South American Triangle Fever

Credit: depositphotos

The lithium triangle formed by Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia holds almost 60% of the planet’s known reserves. In these high-altitude salt flats, where the earth mirrors saline lakes, a silent battle unfolds that will define electric mobility and the global energy transition. What was once forgotten territory is now coveted by corporations, governments, and investment funds.

Chile leads regional production. Its Atacama and Maricunga salt flats are exploited by SQM and Albemarle, which in 2023 exported more than USD 8.6 billion in lithium carbonate and hydroxide. The country holds about 36% of global reserves, feeding battery factories in China, Korea, and the United States. The State’s partial nationalization policy seeks to balance public control with the need for foreign investment, but the dilemma is evident: will Chile remain an exporter of raw materials or become a player in the value chain?

Argentina is moving forward with dozens of projects in Jujuy, Catamarca, and Salta. Companies such as Livent, Allkem, and Ganfeng Lithium expand operations that already generate more than USD 1.2 billion in annual exports. The country, still scaling up, could become the world’s second producer by 2030 if it manages to stabilize its regulatory framework and attract capital.

Bolivia, with the world’s largest theoretical reserves in the Salar de Uyuni, remains trapped in paradox. It has the wealth but lacks technology and strategic partners. After decades of promises, it has only begun pilot projects with Chinese and Russian firms.

The international price of lithium rose from less than USD 10,000 per ton in 2020 to peaks above 70,000 in 2022, stabilizing around 25,000 in 2024. By 2030 demand will quadruple, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage. The South American triangle is not just a geological map, it is the new OPEC of the 21st century.

Africa and Australia, the New Lithium Giants

While South America captures media attention, Africa and Australia are consolidating production that competes directly with the lithium triangle. These territories, rich in hard-rock spodumene, have scaled quickly in the last decade and are now key pieces of the global energy puzzle.

Australia is the undisputed leader. Its Greenbushes mine, in the west, is the largest in the world and supplies nearly 20% of global production. Along with projects in Pilbara and Mt. Marion, the country generated more than USD 18 billion in lithium exports in 2023, surpassing copper revenues. Companies like Pilbara Minerals and Tianqi Lithium control much of this extraction in close partnership with China, which refines almost all exported material.

In Africa, potential is newer but no less ambitious. Zimbabwe has the Bikita mine and projects in Arcadia that could place it among the top five producers by 2030. The Congo, long known for cobalt, is beginning to explore lithium deposits in Katanga. Namibia is emerging as a new investment hub, with Australian and Chinese firms developing projects. The region offers low extraction costs and proximity to strategic ports but faces the risk of repeating history: mineral wealth exported, local poverty entrenched.

The competition with Latin America is direct. While salt flats depend on slow evaporation and intensive water use, hard-rock mines allow faster and more controlled exploitation. This accelerates supply in a market where demand keeps surging.

Australia and Africa are redrawing the map. It is no longer a single triangle, but a global pentagon of lithium, where each country seeks to secure its slice of the future of transport and energy.

Green Hydrogen, the New Energy Frontier

Green hydrogen has become the new energy promise of the 21st century. Produced by water electrolysis powered by renewable energy, it is presented as the fuel that can decarbonize heavy industry, shipping, and aviation. The narrative is clear: where lithium powers batteries, hydrogen will drive turbines and factories.

The numbers are striking. Between 2023 and 2025, more than USD 240 billion in green hydrogen projects were announced worldwide. Europe is the main buyer, committed to importing large volumes from 2030 to reduce fossil gas dependence. Germany leads with long-term purchase agreements and financing for plants across continents.

In the Global South, sun- and wind-rich territories are rising as protagonists. Chile projects producing the world’s cheapest hydrogen by 2030 thanks to Atacama’s solar radiation and Magallanes’ winds. The government estimates potential exports of more than USD 30 billion annually by 2040. Morocco moves ahead with EU-backed projects, leveraging its geographic closeness. Saudi Arabia, once built on oil, is investing over USD 5 billion in Neom, a megaproject to ensure its power in the green era.

In Asia, Japan is pioneering demand, betting on ships transporting liquid hydrogen from Australia and the Middle East. For Tokyo, this fuel is a path to reinforce energy security and cut emissions.

Green hydrogen promises an energy revolution, but also reveals a hard truth: whoever controls production and export corridors will hold not just a billion-dollar business, but the key to the global hydrogen industry.

The Power Map: China, the United States, Europe

The energy transition is not only a technological race, it is a fierce struggle for control of value chains. Three players dominate the board: China, the United States, and Europe. Each deploys strategies to ensure lithium, hydrogen, and renewables serve their own interests first.

China has a decade-long lead. It controls over 70% of lithium refining, 80% of solar panel production, and dominates battery manufacturing with giants like CATL and BYD. Its model combines state investment, private capital, and resource security in Africa and Latin America. Beijing not only extracts, it processes. That is why it sets prices and defines global supply.

The United States, aware of its dependence, launched the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, with subsidies exceeding USD 370 billion for clean energy. Its goal is to attract battery plants, boost hydrogen, and secure supply chains away from China. Tesla, General Motors, and Ford are already competing for direct contracts with lithium producers in South America and Australia. Washington also pressures Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia to prioritize deals with U.S. companies.

Europe, with no major mineral reserves, bets on regulation and financing. The Green Deal directs billions toward green hydrogen, renewables, and storage projects. Germany secures import contracts from Chile, Morocco, and Namibia, knowing it cannot depend on Russia or China.

Brussels speaks of sustainability, but its technological dependence is evident. The power map is clear. China produces and processes, the U.S. subsidizes and secures, Europe regulates and buys. The energy transition is presented as a global alliance, but in reality, it is a geopolitical contest over who defines the future.

Environmental and Social Challenges

The energy transition is presented as a solution to climate change, but its dark side already weighs on territories and communities. Lithium and green hydrogen, pillars of the future, carry environmental and social conflicts that risk repeating the story of extractivism.

In the South American triangle, lithium extraction requires evaporating millions of liters of brine. In Chile’s Atacama, companies pump more than 2,000 liters per second, disrupting a fragile ecosystem where flamingos, indigenous communities, and vegetation depend on that water balance.

In Argentina, Kolla and Atacama communities denounce projects moving forward without prior consultation, while the government celebrates exports. The paradox is brutal: clean mobility in Europe or Asia is promised at the cost of drying the highlands.

Green hydrogen is no exception. It requires renewable electricity and vast amounts of fresh water. In Chile, projects in Magallanes and Atacama demand massive wind and solar farms, with impacts on fauna and landscapes. In Morocco, rural communities fear losing water access in already arid zones. Even in wealthy countries like Germany or Japan, reliance on imports raises justice questions: emissions are reduced in the North, while costs are transferred to the South.

Social conflicts are inevitable if the transition does not include local participation and environmental respect. The risk is repeating the fossil fuel model: concentrated wealth, widespread poverty, and sacrificed territories. The true transition is not just technological, it is also political and social.

Projections 2030–2050

The future of energy is no longer measured in barrels of oil. Lithium and green hydrogen are the vectors that will define the next three decades. According to the International Energy Agency, global lithium demand will quadruple by 2030 and increase sixfold by 2050, driven by transport electrification and renewable energy storage. Electric cars alone could require over 3,500 GWh in batteries by 2030, implying millions of tons of processed lithium every year.

Green hydrogen will follow a similar curve. Today it accounts for barely 0.1% of global energy use, but BloombergNEF projects that by 2050 it could cover up to 20% of the global matrix, creating a market exceeding USD 2.5 trillion annually. Europe will lead demand, with Germany importing up to 70% of its projected needs. Japan and South Korea will be key buyers, while Chile, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Australia will compete to become strategic suppliers.

Oil and gas will not disappear immediately. OPEC estimates they will still represent over 40% of the matrix in 2040, though their share will fall. The transition will be uneven: the industrial North will expand renewables, while the Global South will still rely on fossil fuels to sustain growth.

Geopolitical concentration is evident. China will dominate lithium and battery chains, the U.S. will aim to lead hydrogen, and Europe will consolidate as regulator and importer. The risk is that the energy transition repeats history: a few powers decide, while the rest supply raw materials. The challenge is to break this logic before 2050 arrives too late.

Lithium and Green Hydrogen in Comparative Figures

The future of energy rests on two complementary but distinct vectors. Lithium powers the battery revolution, which depends on renewable or fossil electricity. Green hydrogen, by contrast, is presented as a direct fuel, a clean gasoline capable of powering ships, planes, and industries without plugs or grids.

• Lithium (batteries) | Demand ×6 by 2050 | Price 2024: USD 25,000/ton | Market 2030: 700,000 tons LCE
• Green hydrogen (clean fuel) | Today 0.1% of energy | Projection 2050: 20% | Market 2050: USD 2.5 trillion

Lithium is the backbone of mobile electrification. Each EV requires 40–80 kg of lithium in its batteries. Its logic is storage and recharge, depending on available electricity. Green hydrogen works differently: it behaves like a direct fuel, usable in turbines, fuel cells, and industry, replacing oil and gas. A lithium battery needs recharging. A hydrogen tank fills like gasoline, but without carbon.

The investment gap shows the difference. Lithium is measured in millions of tons and tens of billions of export dollars. Green hydrogen projects are measured in millions of tons of clean fuel and trillions in revenues. One is a strategic mineral. The other is a global energy vector.

What is at stake is not which technology “wins,” but how they integrate. Batteries and fuels are not enemies; they are pieces of the same board. If lithium powers electric mobility and green hydrogen drives industry and heavy transport, together they could reshape the global energy map. The dilemma is whether that promise will belong to all—or only to those who control the minerals and export routes.

Oil shaped the 20th century with wars, dictatorships, and dependence.

Today lithium and green hydrogen appear as the promise of a different century, but the shadow of repeating the same mistakes looms large. The reality is evident. Investments grow, prices spike, corporations advance over salt flats and deserts, and powers draft agreements that decide the future without consulting those who live in the territories. Lithium dries lagoons in the highlands and hydrogen consumes water in arid zones. What is presented as clean energy drags social and environmental costs already hitting communities and ecosystems.

Yet the beauty of what it could be remains possible. Lithium could become the foundation of a just, sustainable mobility. Green hydrogen could displace oil without leaving peoples behind. The energy transition can be the greatest global pact if built with cooperation, shared sovereignty, and respect for nature. Otherwise, it will be another map of plunder dressed in green, where a few win and many lose.

We will not see the full outcome. But our children and their children will inherit a planet that must decide whether energy was the spark of new wars or the chance for climate peace.

May the 21st century be remembered not for greed in salt flats nor disputes over hydrogen, but for choosing the path of just, clean, universal energy.

Bibliography and References

• International Energy Agency (IEA, 2023). World Energy Outlook.
• BloombergNEF (2023). Energy Transition Investment Trends.
• World Bank (2022). Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition.
• ECLAC (2023). Lithium in Latin America: Opportunities and Challenges.