The Future of Nigeria’s Energy Sector Remains Unclear
March 15, 2025
Nigeria has long been known for being an oil-rich state, as the biggest fossil fuel producer in Africa. In recent years, the government has increasingly focused on expanding the country’s renewable energy capacity to boost its energy security. However, this month, President Donald Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright pledged to support fossil fuel development across Africa, which could encourage countries such as Nigeria to continue exploiting their oil and gas resources.
This month, the new Trump administration’s energy secretary Chris Wright told African leaders that Africa needed more energy of all kinds, including coal, to ensure its energy security. Wright stated, “This government has no desire to tell you what you should do with your energy system… It’s a paternalistic post-colonial attitude that I just can’t stand.” The Energy Secretary added, “We’ve had years of Western countries shamelessly saying don’t develop coal, coal is bad… That’s just nonsense, 100 percent nonsense. Coal transformed our world and made it better.”
Around 600 million of Africa’s 1.5 billion population does not have access to power. This has driven many countries across the continent to tap into their oil, gas, and coal reserves to enhance their energy security, at a time when much of the world is attempting to transition away from fossil fuels. As many African countries undergo industrialisation, the energy demand is increasing. While several international organisations and country leaders are encouraging African leaders to develop their renewable energy capacity rather than tap into their fossil fuel reserves, very few are putting their money where their mouth is.
Nigeria’s oil industry is dominated by two U.S. oil majors, ExxonMobil and Chevron. In 2023, Nigeria’s proven crude oil reserves totalled 37.5 billion barrels and it was producing an average of 1.5 million bpd of crude. Nigeria joined OPEC in 1971 and it is now the 16th-biggest oil producer worldwide. Nevertheless, over 80 million Nigerians do not have access to electricity, out of a population of around 228 million, according to a 2021 World Bank report. This suggests that oil and gas alone have not met the country’s energy demand.
To address the issue of energy insecurity, the Nigerian government has increasingly sought to expand its renewable energy capacity, to diversify its energy mix. The government aims for renewable energy to contribute nearly 60 percent of Nigeria’s energy demand by 2050. In 2023, the government collaborated with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to develop the Renewable Energy Roadmap Nigeria to assess the renewable energy deployment potential to 2050. The report outlined Nigeria’s potential to develop its solar and wind energy, hydropower, and biomass sectors.
In recent years, Nigeria has made strides in developing its renewable energy sector. This month, the government signed a $200 million agreement with the pan-African Distributed Renewable Energy (DRE) company WeLight to develop hundreds of renewable mini-grids to deliver stable power to millions of people in rural regions and urban suburbs. The project is backed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB). The plan is to develop 400 mini-grids and 50 MetroGrids across the country to enhance access to electricity, supporting between 1.5 and 2 million people. WeLight will work with Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency (REA) to develop the project.
Also this month, Nigeria collaborated with a United Nations agency to create a fund to finance the deployment of distributed renewable energy solutions, such as solar home systems and mini-grids. Nigeria hopes to raise $500 million to support its renewable energy aims. The fund is backed by the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority and the UN’s Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) and will be managed by infrastructure investment platform Africa50. The fund is part of the Mission 300 programme, led by the World Bank and AfDB, which aims to provide electricity to 300 million people in Africa by the end of the decade.
Nigeria’s REA also signed an agreement with Lagos-based renewables developer Oando Clean Energy to develop a 1.2 GW solar module assembly plant. The facility forms part of the $950 million Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) project, which is funded by the World Bank and Japan International Cooperation Agency. The project is expected to provide the solar components required to provide clean electricity to 17.5 million Nigerians. As the first solar modular assembly plant with a recycling line in Africa, it is expected to establish Nigeria as a renewable energy hub.
While the U.S. Trump administration is encouraging oil-rich countries across Africa, such as Nigeria, to develop their untapped fossil fuel reserves, much of the rest of the world is pressuring countries across the continent to invest in the expansion of their renewable energy capacity. Many African country leaders have called for higher levels of funding to support a green transition, and if this financing is not provided, many will likely invest in the expansion of their oil and gas industries to meet increasing energy needs and bring in revenue. However, Nigeria, with support from the World Bank and the AfDB, is gradually expanding its renewable energy sector to diversify its energy mix and enhance its energy security.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
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