For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. (TSE:PIF) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 30% in three years, versus a market return of about 13%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 12% in the last three months.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they’ve been consistent with returns.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Although the share price is down over three years, Polaris Renewable Energy actually managed to grow EPS by 75% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Since the change in EPS doesn’t seem to correlate with the change in share price, it’s worth taking a look at other metrics.

Given the healthiness of the dividend payments, we doubt that they’ve concerned the market. It’s good to see that Polaris Renewable Energy has increased its revenue over the last three years. If the company can keep growing revenue, there may be an opportunity for investors. You might have to dig deeper to understand the recent share price weakness.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. If you are thinking of buying or selling Polaris Renewable Energy stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Polaris Renewable Energy’s TSR for the last 3 years was -17%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!