‘The sky is quite literally falling’: How climate change is ruining space, too

March 10, 2025

Incessant streams of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gas emissions are literally causing the sky to fall — reducing the number of satellites that can safely orbit around the planet, wrote Massachusetts Institute of Technology aerospace engineers in a study.

Researchers found that greenhouse gases cause the upper atmosphere to contract, particularly the thermosphere, which is the region where the International Space Station and most satellites orbit.

“Our behavior with greenhouse gases here on Earth over the past 100 years is having an effect on how we operate satellites over the next 100 years,” says study author Richard Linares, associate professor in MIT’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

Thermosphere shrinkage reduces atmospheric drag, which is the force that pulls aging satellites and debris down to lower altitudes, leading to their incineration and self-disposal, as noted in the study.

Researchers indicate that reduced drag leads to longer orbital periods for space junk. Ultimately, space junk will accumulate in various regions of our atmosphere, occupying space needed for new satellites and increasing the risk of collisions in orbit.

“The sky is quite literally falling — just at a rate that’s on the scale of decades,” wrote William Parker, an MIT aerospace graduate student. “We can see this by how the drag on our satellites is changing.”

Researchers predict that by the year 2100, the satellite carrying potential for the most popular regions in our atmosphere could be reduced by 50-66 percent due to greenhouse gases.

The availability of space for satellites is rapidly diminishing. MIT aerospace engineers highlighted that the deployment of “megaconstellations,” like Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starlink, which operates thousands of small internet satellites, is hastening this trend.

“The megaconstellation is a new trend, and we’re showing, because of climate change, we’re going to have a reduced capacity in orbit,” Linares wrote. “And in local regions, we’re close to approaching this capacity value today.”