The stars are lining up for this PayPal-Amazon hybrid, according to the charts
January 6, 2026
U.S. equity markets have delivered exceptional returns over the past five years, but elevated valuations largely driven by concerns of massive AI infrastructure spend with monetization two years (or more?) in the future has sent investor capital overseas in search of better value. Besides valuation concerns, easing geopolitical tensions, strong commodity demand, a weaker U.S. dollar and unevenly applied tariff policy have helped make South America a key beneficiary of capital rotating out of U.S. equities. In this week’s article, we’re going to look at the South American equivalent of our Amazon and PayPal rolled into one: MercadoLibre (MELI) . Let’s hit the macro backdrop before we move into MELI’s micro story. The performance of the S & P 500 in the past year was 18% compared to the flagship emerging market ETF EEM at 34% piques our attention. But context must be maintained as the five-year performance of EEM is 19% compared to the S & P’s 98%. Are emerging markets playing catch up? Possibly, and that’s a big gap to fill, but we have to be careful grouping all emerging markets into one big conversation as the regions are separate and nuanced. EEM is largely driven by Asia (29% China, 20% Taiwan, 12% South Korea, and 16% India). Hidden in there however is a 5-year performance of Argentina at 242%, Peru at 165%, and Mexico at 89%. A weaker U.S. dollar has amplified these gains as the U.S. dollar index (a basket of six currencies against the greenback) has been in a decline since 2022. In fact, simple trendline analysis shows USDX is contemplating a break of the uptrend that began all the way back in 2011. A move lower in USDX should propel global equities higher, along with boosting commodities that should benefit these regions, which includes energy, metals and agriculture. Add in relatively limited tariff exposure and the view of stabilization in the region following the escalation with Venezuela and these markets should continue to power ahead. We view Mercado Libre as one of the highest-quality ways to express our bullish South American growth thesis. We’ve held MELI in our portfolio since mid-2024 and increased the exposure in November 2025. Often described as the Amazon and PayPal of Latin America, Mercado Libre operates the dominant ecommerce platform across Brazil, Mexico and Argentina while simultaneously building out a powerful financial ecosystem through Mercado Pago, their payments platform. This platform is increasingly becoming core infrastructure for day-to-day commerce, extending well beyond the marketplace driving scalable, high-margin growth. Like Amazon in the early 2010’s, MELI is investing heavily in logistics, credit, and financial services to lock in users and expand operating leverage. The financial results are starting to reflect that strategy. The graph below shows % EBITDA margins overlaid with revenues from 2017. The monthly chart of MELI price is commensurably impressive as the revenue growth shown above. The uptrend since 2009 is clear and clearly contained within a rising parallel trend channel that is currently acting as the lower end of support, or a price floor. Reinforcing that is the old $2,000-area high that acted as resistance, now broken should flip the script and also act as support. Moving to the weekly chart, we see the back half of 2025 defined as a pullback within a smaller parallel channel that dropped us into the monthly chart support zone described above. With the broader LatAm equity bid, and AMZN that is higher by 3.5% as a I type, I’m thinking we may have the energy to push through the $2,300-resistance and move into the $3,000’s or higher. I’m currently holding a 2% allocation in our growth portfolio at Inside Edge Capital. If we see that move above resistance I’m inclined to increase to a 3% holding with the expectation that $2000 will act as a floor. At an approximate $100 billion market cap trading 40’s forward earnings, MELI is not cheap. But in this market growth stocks with big upside potential are rarely cheap. GAAP earnings are expected to grow north of 40% for this key name south of the border. If digital commerce and digital bank adoption in Latin America continue on their current trajectory, MELI is a key growth name that offers an attractive opportunity for investors to gain exposure outside of the crowded U.S. growth trade. -Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC We offer active stock alerts, portfolio management, as well as regular market updates like the idea presented above here . DISCLOSURES: Gordon owns MELI personally and in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
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