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Welcome to Trader Talk, where we dish out the latest Wall Street buzz to keep your portfolio sizzling. I’m Kenny Polcari, your host, and I’m coming to you live from the iconic New York Stock Exchange, a place that had been my home for 4 decades, but it still fuels the pulse of capitalism, entrepreneurship, and freedom. Let’s take a jump into my big take for the week.Somewhere along the way, holding cash got a bad rap. People think if you’re sitting on cash, you’re scared, you’re uncertain or worse, you’re missing out. But here’s the truth, cash isn’t a sign of fear, it’s a sign of control or can be in a world where every dip feels like a buying opportunity and FOMO runs wild, holding cash takes discipline.But smart investors know that cash is an active position, not a passive one. It’s dry powder, it’s optionality, it’s flexibility when the market gives you a gift. When valuations are stretched, headlines are chaotic or the setup just doesn’t feel right.Cash gives you the power to wait to be selective, to enter the market on your terms, not the markets. Cash also gives you resilience. It protects you on the downside and the drawdown and it keeps you from having to sell quality assets at a loss just to raise liquidity. That kind of stability matters, especially when volatility spikes and emotions run high.Does this mean staying cash forever? Of course not. Cash doesn’t compound. Well, it does very little. Over time, staying on the sideline costs you money, but in the short term, when the setup isn’t right, cash is a position and can be a powerful one. Bottom line, don’t let anyone shame you out of holding cash. It’s not weakness, it’s patience and patience in this game is what separates the pros from the panic and sometimes patience is a virtue.I’d like to introduce my next guest, Barbara Duran, founder and CEO of BDA Capital Partners, a New York-based wealth advisory firm with over 35 years on Wall Street, including senior roles at Newburgher Burnham and Morgan Stanley. Barbara brings extensive investment management experience, a Penn State.Alumna with an MBA from Harvard, she has served as an emeritus trustee on Penn State’s board and is a member of the Investment council. Beyond finance, Barber represented the US on national lacrosse and field hockey games.Please join me in welcoming Barbara Duran. Wow, that is pretty exciting, and I want to talk about that, but let’s get to the markets first. Tell the audience just a little bit more kind of how I introduced you, kind of how you ended up where youare,

2:45 spk_1

right, right. Well, originally, as we were talking ahead of time, I was, I started as a journalist and was determined to have a career in magazine publishing, but I invested in a stock called Tanndon Computer, no longer around that went up 20 points in 2 weeks.They had to investigate this. Suddenly the fuse. It sure did, you know, anyway, so the, the short version is that that’s what made my transition to Wall Street and business school was the transition. And so I’ve been on what’s called the buy and sell side back and forth over the many years, big firms doing entrepreneurial things and right now I have my own firm, which is a wealth advisory and asset management with a specialty in large cap growth stocks, which is made for a painful last few weeks.

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You

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know, but,

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but actually in the long run they’re going to be fine. We can talk about that too. Yeah,

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I can’t, I can’t wait to talk about that. But, um, so basically I, I have what different I think my background in wealth advisory is that I have actual professional investment management experience. When I was at Lehman Brothers, when there was a Lehman Brothers, um, I managed what’s called firm’s proprietary capital, which is their own capital. I ran a hedge fund, learned about risk management the hard way, and I also co-managed a TMT fund technology, media.Um, and telecom, yes, at Newburg and Berman. No, that was at Newburgh who was then owned, had been acquired by Lehman so effectively at Lehman. But

3:59 spk_0

yeah, you know, it’s funny because you and I probably without either one of us knowing it because I used to do a lot of business for Lehman Brothers and I would do a lot when they had their proprietary business. I used to do that. I used to do client business as a broker when I was running around here on the floor. So it’s interesting. I wonder, you know, had, were you, when you wereThere if in fact that might have been the case, because it was such an exciting time down here on the floor to be in the thick of it, but you had it from a different angle and it must have been very, very exciting.

4:24 spk_1

Itwas actually because in those days, you know, Lehman I was institutional equity sales, you know, before there was information everywhere, so you had real value added and basically, you know, you, I had Michael Steinhardt as a client, one of the 1st 3 hedge funds, and boy, that was, uh, you know, you had to have tough skin to work.Michael Steineris

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a blast from the

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Iknow, remember it was Soros Steinhardt and who was the 3rd. There were 3 at that time. Was it

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Ivan Bosky?

4:48 spk_1

No, he was doing he was doing M&A,

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yeah,

4:50 spk_1

yeah, yeah, he was doing the M&A, but there were only really 3 big hedge funds. Oh, Soros, of

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course, yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I got what an exciting experience. What an exciting career. It

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was at that time. And

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so now you, now you’re a wealth adviser here in New York City.And you focus on large cap growth. So let’s talk about that considering where we are, what the market is. Let’s talk to you about, what do you think about liberation Day. You know, I said it to, I said it before that, you know, we’ve all been liberated from some of our.

5:17 spk_1

We’ve been liberated from our profits and our, our winning portfolio positions.

5:22 spk_0

Well, no, I hear you. I hear you, but so let’s talk about that for a minute because, you know, as an advisor because I’m in the same position, I’m chief market strategist and advisory from down in Florida in in Jupiter. And so on times like this, you end up spending a lot of time, you know, trying to just help people calm down and understand and focus on.The long term, look at their portfolio, understand what they own, help them just to understand it because it can be an anxious time.

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It’s a very anxious time and frankly, I’ve been getting calls from the beginning. I have any of my clients that are Democrats have had extra fear, and certainly if you saw the University of Michigan consumer survey, there really is a big split, you know, between Democrats and Republicans. There’s a big split, yes, and so it’s been, but this particular last few weeks has been veryVery tough and clients who’ve been with me for a while, you don’t know, and I’ve tried to educate them as I’m sure you have, stocks are volatile. It doesn’t mean they’re riskier. They’re called riskier because of the volatility, but risk to me is risk of loss of capital. And if you are in solid fundamental companies, you have to live through this. In 22, we got killed because I have the large cap growth, the meds, the Googles, all that stuff, but then they came roaring back.And by the end of the next year were higher than they were in the course by the end of 24. This time I think is a bit different because this to me, there’s so much uncertainty, there’s so much coming out as you, as you, I’m sure you saw this morning, you know, the president came out with more threats on China, and I’m sorry, China, I, in my view, is not going to back down.

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Well, you know, that’s interesting because I don’t think Trump’s going to back down either. I think if he backs down now, especially after he nowThreatened another 50%, I think, is that what he threatened? I think if he backs down now he’s going to be seen as completely weak then, right? So I don’t think he can backdown.

7:00 spk_1

Well, it’s going to be tough because his history, as we know is that he doubles down when he’s caught in something that’s not pleasant for him to acknowledge. But the problem is when you look at who’s who has the leading share in global GDP, OK, we’re number one, but it’s somewhere depending what stats you look at 26, 27%.Then you have combined the EU, who also looks like they’re going to come back with their own tariffs, and China are higher than we are in their share of GDP. We don’t have 90% share of global GDP, so the question is can we really throw our weight around without being hurt? And I think we’re going to be severely hurt if he does not back down on a lot of this.

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Well, let me ask a question. We had news over the weekend that we’re going to have Vietnam, Taiwan, and even Japan sending a delegation to the White House to talk about tariffs. They get it. They want to talk about it. Um, and I wonder.If they make that deal, say they make those three deals, that would show some credibility and maybe it brings others to the table. Now, is it all going to be zero? No, I don’t think so. But do I think that the trade agreements can be renegotiated? I think they can be.Do

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you,

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do you? Well,

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and up until now he has backed off on some negotiations, but the messages are very mixed, and even I don’t, I forget if it was Lutnick or uh Navarro over the week and said, OK, 0%.You know, for Korea, but it’s all the non, you know, deficit stuff, so they’re still not saying, OK, we’ll back off totally so.This is, uh, we don’t know what the end game is here because it keeps changing. First it was to cut down the flow of fentanyl, and it was this I think it’s really they are hoping there’s a lot of libertarians in this government that really would like to get rid of all regulations and taxes, and I think they are hoping tariffs will be that substitute, but you and I both know when you raise prices, it’s economics 101 demand goes down, you know, so and we don’t know all the ancillary effects, you know.Like foreign tourism, right, that added pre-COVID, you know, the only stats I could find 1.1% to our GDP, right? 40% of that is from Canadians. Well, guess what? Travel from the Canadians is down 70% from the EU it’s down 25%. So it’s all these secondary effects that are rippling out.

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Well, it’s always like, you know, you can never do one thing, right? You think you’re doing one thing, but there’s all these ripple effects that, that it’s amazing because I think to myself.They have to know they’re going to be ripple effects. How can they all sit there and pretend like there’s no ripple effects. There’s always a ripple effect, right? You can never just do one thing. So let’s talk about that for a minute now that when we talk about your sector, large cap growth.It’s come under some pressure, but those are all big quality names, names that people want to be in.

9:38 spk_1

Right, I mean, that’s what we were talking about earlier, what I’m telling my clients, you know, some are very freaked out and just to say, look, we are invested in very solid companies with long runways of growth sectors, across sectors, you know, because I own not just the obvious large cap growth, but it’s the Netflixes, you know, it’s, um, Walmart, it’s Costco. It’s these names that are continued to do very well. Now we don’t know what’s going to happen to earnings because as demand comes down, you know, they will take a name.And the question for all of us is, where is this discount in the market? But you know how the market hates uncertainty and when we can’t game it out and model it out, you’ll golower.

10:13 spk_0

That’s right. And that’s the point. When the because the market can deal with certainty if it knows what the, if it knows what the problem is, it can deal with it. It’s when it becomes uncertain that people come to Houston and the first, the first reaction is to shoot first and ask questions later, and then you see lower prices. And, and I think we’re going to continue to see that, but at some point.The selling becomes exhausted and the prices become screaming buys.

10:37 spk_1

No, you’re exactly right. I mean, I was looking just before I came over at just like Meta, Amazon, Netflix, and Intuitive Surgical, you know, and intuitive surgical probably has the least exposure to any weakness in the consumer economy, but they are all below.The historic PEs 35, and 10 years and getting lower like meta right now instead of 20 PE, you know, and that has great growth possibilities. I mean, they have figured out the advertising algorithm, so you’re right,

11:03 spk_0

they become value names, right? I mean, that’s what they become because they become so oversold, which I think a lot of people.Need to understand that, right? And I think when you sit and you talk to them and you show them, OK, the equity side of your portfolio might be under some pressure, but the bond side of your portfolio is acting very well, right? So it’s, it’s, it’s balancing out, maybe not 100%, but you, but that’s exactly why you have a well diversified.

11:28 spk_1

Well, exactly. And Kenny, and the exercise I’ve done with some of my clients is to look back what happened to their portfolios in 22, where they started where they ended, which was not a, not a pretty sight. You couldn’t hide anywhere that year that the Fed was.So aggressive in raising ranks, bonds, stocks, everything got killed. And then I look at what where it was at the beginning and end of 23 and then 24 and I say, look, we are not selling here, you know, I think the market at a strong possibility it goes lower and I’ve been saying that since last Thursday, but we’re certainly not selling. I will not be as opportunistic as I usually am, you know, and I’m sure you’re the same way you have seen through various market crashes, it’s almost always a buying opportunity, but this time, this feels a little bit like ’08.Well,

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I, I, I think you have to be cautious because I think there’s still a lot out there, right? I usually go by the 3 day rule, right? Somebody said to me, you know, on Friday when the market, I go, I go by the 3 day rule. When the after the first visceral reaction, which was Thursday, the market closed on this lows, which is never a good idea. Friday, bang, they hit it again, closed on its lows, and look what it’s doing today. Again, it’s under some pressure, but it is the 3rd day and maybe you’re gonna start to see.A little bit of a calmer market. And so that’s, I always operate under that 3 day rule. So I want to see what ultimately happens today. You know, where it closes, you know, if we close on the lows again, if you close on the lows again, doesn’t really set up for tomorrow’s gonna be an ugly day aswell.

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No, you’re right, and I think that that’s very smart. And in this, normally I might step in on the 2nd day, but not here. I’d rather miss that absolutely.Yeah, because it’s just, it’s, uh, and also I’m not sure where the clarity comes from. You saw what happened today when there was apparently a false rumor that Trump was going to put a 90 day hold. The market sprangup.

13:06 spk_0

That’s all I wanted was one little bit of positive hope. The S&P went from negative. I was up 200 points in the blink of an eye. Blink of an eye. I don’t know who.At CNBC decided that was the right that was the right headline to go with, but I’m sure South’s gonna pay heavy price because the White House came right out and said, uh uh, not true. And then you saw what happened. The market immediately turned south again, right? But it does feel to me.Like the worst is over, which doesn’t mean that it’s not gonna kind of trend a little bit lower, but I don’t think we’re gonna get these down 6% days on and on and on. I just don’t think we’re gonna. I think it’s feeling exhausted. Besides the fact, I think there are names that are suddenly becoming very interesting to look at.

13:48 spk_1

Yes, they are, and it’s across all sectors. I mean, obviously the obvious ones that have held up are utilities, you know, staples, REITs, this kind of thing, but

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staplesare flat on the year because I just put some and utility down 1%. Everything else is really getting,

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yeah,

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I

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knowwhich is great because you look.And everything, I think the, there’s so many stocks in the S&P that are down, you know, 20% from their highs, you know, not necessarily a year, yeah, so and then the question is we don’t even know what the real PE is now because we don’t know what the earnings are going to be and companies don’t know. Nobody’s been really guiding down because they don’t know,

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right? So what’s your because earnings are gonna start on Friday. We’re gonna start with the big banks, JP Morgan, Bank of America, the whole group, right? And, and so you’re gonna start to get an initial sense of what the banks feel anyway, right? I always like to look, especially, and I love and listen.I own JP Morgan. I own Bank of America. Let’s just say that, right? I love Jamie Dimon. I think he does an amazing job, um, but I’m always interested to learn what these banks are allocating to their loan loss reserve account because I think that is very, very telling on where they think this economy, where, where they think this economy is going to go, now they’re preparing for defaults and allthat,

14:54 spk_1

right? That’s a, that’s a really good point because that is usually a good lead indicator on that stuff, but their problem’s going to be, uh, if they want to assume worst case, and Jamie Dimon is a case where he always.Assumes worst case. So they will probably up their loan, you know, loan reserve, which is OK. Yeah, no, it is OK because you’ve got to be prepared that this could be, I mean, when they announced that last week, that was worse than the worst case scenario already out there. It was shocking. People thought reciprocal tariffs. Oh, that OK, but this thing, I mean, and that bogusformula.

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Hold hold the line one minute, we’ll be right back.All right, so welcome back. Look, I want to pick up on one thing you just said about reciprocal tariffs. So in my mind, the idea of a reciprocal tariff was if you charge us, we’re gonna charge you the exact same amount, not more, not less. Now what I saw was they didn’t charge 100% reciprocal tariffs, but then everybody said, uh, the formula they used was wrong. Talk to me your impression of what we just saw happen.

15:55 spk_1

Well, I, I, I don’t even know what to say about that formula because every credible source that I’ve read says it, it’s just made up. It’s not on any basic economic because it’s not when you look at what the real tariffs are. I mean, EU, I forget the exact numbers, but it’s like 2% versus 2.5%, and we’re coming back with 30, 40%, 50% tariffs. OK, but

16:15 spk_0

could some, I think Scott Bessett’s a pretty smart guy.I, I think he had to be in the room when they were talking about this whole reciprocal tariff thing. So the idea that they’reSo off, as some people said, you know, they just pulled him out of thin air. I thought to myself,Did anyone think thatOther people weren’t going to recognize that the math wasn’t right. That’s what’s so, that’s what’s so unnerving to me because I’m not sure if I, I don’t know what to believe at themoment.

16:43 spk_1

Well, I think that gives, it’s an issue of credibility in the current administration because I just watched two flash polls like over the weekend with CEOs. It’s now almost 2/3 think we’re going into recession, fully, you know, a third of them think they will likely have to cut jobs. The others don’t know yet.You know, and so, and then, um, also, uh, flash, uh, checking on the street, recession odds have gone from 23% at the beginning of the year to 56%, 57%. CPI, you know, was supposed to be they were looking at, you know, 2.7%. It’s up almost 2.6% or 2.8%, now up to 3.7%, and the same with GDP now less than a percent. We’re going to get the

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March numbers, you know, we’re gonna

17:21 spk_1

get March numbers yeah, CPI and PPI and the latest University of Michigan sentiment Friday, which, what’s your guess?

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Well,

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it’s gonna be bad.

17:30 spk_0

It’s been, it’s been fairly negative of late, right? Um, but let me ask a question, do you think we’re gonna, do you think we’re headed for a deep, dark recession?

17:40 spk_1

I think the probabilities have increased a lot, and I think whether it’s moderate or not, and we’re starting from a good place, right? I mean, the economy, you know, Trump inherited a very strong economy, started the year out very positively, and the positive effects, obviously, and it’s not for good reasons, but oil prices are down. If they’re, they’re down big and if they go down much lower though, it’s going to be tough for our producers who a lot of the shale producers have a much higher break even like 55%. We’re not so far

18:04 spk_0

from that far from there. We’re 5 or

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60 right now and obviously the.10 year rate has come down. That’s helpful. We’ll see probably some good refi for mortgages this week and for the government, right? So there are good things happening but for bad reasons. It’s because people are looking at reduced growth. All right,

18:18 spk_0

so listen, I want, I want to revisit this with you in a couple of months, uh, after we kind of work this through and see how it all comes out on the other end, and it may be longer than a couple of months, but I want to kind of come back and and revisit this with you if you don’t mind.

18:31 spk_1

No, I’d love to because we’re going to know a lot more pretty soon.

18:34 spk_0

Yeah, yeah.All right, so let’s wrap things up with 3 essential market tips to keep in mind, no matter which way the wind is blowing. First, you want to set realistic expectations for yourself. Markets don’t always go up and not every trade is going to be a winner. Approach investing with a balanced mindset. Understand that gains may take time and losses are just part of the journey. By keeping your expectations.Grounded you’ll make a more levelheaded decisions and avoid the emotional part of trading. Focus on your risk management. Protecting your capital is just as important as growing it. Always have a clear exit plan for each trade and stick to the stop loss levels. Proper risk management helps you survive market downturns and preserves your ability to.Take advantage of the new opportunities and keep learning whether you’re new to investing or have been trading for years, the market is always evolving. Stay curious, read books, follow financial news and consider taking courses to deepen your knowledge. The more you understand, the better equipped you’ll be able to adapt to the changing market conditions and refining your strategies.OK, so as you know, I’m always one to add a recipe to the end of, uh, these, these, uh, podcasts because I’m a cook and I love to cook and I think food is fantastic. So this one is the recipe is simple. It’s a one-pot dish of broken spaghetti, so we call it pasta rota and it’s cooked with zucchini and finished with Pecorino Romano cheese. It also reflects.The spirit of the kitchen, the cucinapora, which is Italy’s poor kitchen, with a nod to Roman culinary roots. Pasta itself is ancient origins in Italy with evidence of dried pasta production dating all the way back to the Arab influence in Sicily around the 8th to 9th centuries. Broken pasta, uh, was a practical choice, either scraps from imperfect batches or intent.snapped to cook faster in soups and stews in rural households, it was often boiled with whatever, whatever vegetables were at hand, a practice common in Lazio where zucchini became a garden favorite due to its versatility and yield. Rome’s culinary identity shaped by shepherds and farmers leans heavily on Pecorino Romano, a salty, sharp sheep’s.Cheese produced in Lazio since the ancient times. Roman dishes showcase his ingredients ability to transform simple pasta into something rich and satisfying. The addition of Romano cheese aligns with this tradition, melting into the starchy pasta water and zucchini to create a creamy sauce. You can get the recipe by clicking on the QR code that you see on the screen.That’s a wrap for today’s trader talk, but the conversation will keep going. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcast. You got questions or topics you want covered? Email me at tradedertalk@yahoo Inc.com because we’re listening. Until next time, stay sharp, stay disciplined, and stay in touch. Take good care.

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This content was not intended to be financial advice and should not be used as a substitute for professional financial services.