If there’s one constant in the public mindset right now, it’s change—swift, dramatic, and fuelled by three key factors: Justin Trudeau’s resignation, the Liberal leadership race, and the renewed threat posed by Donald Trump. It’s not just another passing news cycle; it’s a likely realignment of how Canadians think about their political choices.

For over a year, I’ve argued that what some labelled “Poilievremania” was never really about Pierre Poilievre at all. The Conservative coalition, riding high in the polls, was largely united by one thing: a deep dislike of Justin Trudeau and a desire for something—anything—new.

But with Trudeau now increasingly in the rearview mirror, Canadians’ minds are on a different question altogether: do they want a fundamental shift in policy and approach (as represented by the Conservatives under Poilievre), or do they want to figure out how they want the next government to handle Trump’s looming presence and who they trust to navigate Canada through this unprecedented moment?

The latest data from my current national survey (full results out later this week) at Abacus Data is telling. Since Trudeau stepped aside, the size of the accessible voter pool for the Conservative Party is down, while the Liberal pool continues to grow. The NDP, meanwhile, has seen its accessible voter pool shrink. That tracks with something else we’re seeing on the ground: Canadians are newly open and persuadable.