In the next year, one Magnificent 7 stock will sharply underperform the rest of the group by far, no matter in which direction the value of the overall group goes. That exception is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL).

The Wall Street Journal reports that only two Magnificent 7 stocks outperformed the S&P 500 last year. These were Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL). After strong performances in earlier years, the rest of the group delivered disappointing market results in 2025.

Apple’s stock price has depended on a single thing. iPhone sales have continued to be remarkably successful. According to Counterpoint, Apple led the global smartphone market in 2025 with 20% share and 10% annual shipment growth. That was the highest among the top five brands. It topped rival Samsung, which had a market share of 19% and rose only 5% year over year. Counterpoint credits sales of the new iPhone 17 for Apple’s success.

The appeal of the iPhone 18 will be weaker when it is released in September (the usual release schedule), and iPhone 17 sales will slow. That is because, despite a new relationship with Alphabet to bring artificial intelligence (AI) to the smartphone, it will be too little too late. Apple promised the AI product in a release of iOS early this year. It was unable to build this in-house, so it turned to Alphabet’s Google to use its Gemini AI product, which is currently considered better, in some circles, than OpenAI’s ChatGPT 5 series.

The integration faces two hurdles. First, it will not happen overnight. This means Apple’s AI capacity will come later, and later than planned. The second challenge is that the integration will be with Apple’s Siri, which has a mixed reputation.

Apple also cannot overcome the fact that other AI products are among the most downloaded on the iPhone. ChatGPT and Gemini are in the top four “Total App Downloads.” Grok is in 10th place. Tens of millions of iPhone owners (perhaps more) already have devices that can be AI-powered.

There have been signs for some time that Wall Street has turned its back on Apple. Last year, the stock was up 11% while the S&P 500 was 16% higher. A look at the five-year chart is even more depressing for Apple shareholders. What was once the hottest megacap stock in the world is up 83% in the past five years, while the S&P 500 is 81% higher.

Investors started to walk away from Apple before 2025. Its AI failure means that in 2026, that process will accelerate.

Apple Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025–2030