Tilray Brands (NasdaqGS:TLRY) is getting fresh attention after a run of upbeat news, fueled by speculation about U.S. cannabis rescheduling and a quarterly earnings report that outperformed expectations. Investors are watching these developments closely.

See our latest analysis for Tilray Brands.

Tilray’s share price has staged a big comeback lately, surging more than 20% over the past month and more than doubling in the last 90 days as upbeat earnings and hopes for U.S. cannabis reform sparked renewed investor enthusiasm. Despite this sharp rally, the total shareholder return over the past year remains negative. This underscores that longer-term investors are still waiting for a sustainable turnaround, while momentum in recent weeks has clearly picked up.

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But after such a rapid surge, is Tilray Brands offering genuine value at these prices, or have markets already factored in all the potential upside? Is there still a real buying opportunity here, or has optimism already been reflected in the current price?

Tilray Brands’ fair value is estimated at $1.11, which is notably lower than its last close at $1.45. Investors are left debating whether the stock’s recent rally runs ahead of real progress or simply mirrors optimism, since the narrative places Tilray above fair value by a considerable margin.

Tilray’s international cannabis business is achieving rapid organic growth, with European cannabis revenue up 112% YoY (excluding Australia) and significant share gains in Germany due to regulatory tailwinds, broader medical adoption, and expanding legalization. This supports a long runway for top-line revenue acceleration as global cannabis markets open.

Read the complete narrative.

What if Tilray’s valuation rides on bold international growth that critics say is far from guaranteed? Underlying this call, the most popular narrative relies on eyebrow-raising ramp-ups in future revenue, margin improvements, and big leaps in operational scale. If you want to see what assumptions are pushing that fair value north, read the whole narrative and find out what expectations really power this view.

Result: Fair Value of $1.11 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, persistent U.S. regulatory uncertainty and ongoing pricing pressure in Canada could quickly undermine the positive outlook that has been driving Tilray’s recent rally.