Treasury yields hold steady as investors await Fed interest rate decision

March 19, 2025

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U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Wednesday as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision amid rising economic uncertainty.

At 6:25 a.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was up less than 1 basis point at 4.285%, and the 2-year Treasury yield was also up less than a basis point at 4.046%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Treasurys

Investors are looking ahead to the U.S. central bank’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, as the Fed ends two days of monetary policy deliberations.

The interest rate move is due at 2 p.m. ET, and traders are pricing in a 99% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated in recent months that the Fed does not “need to be in a hurry” to lower interest rates further.

This comes as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies, in particular implementing tariffs on global trade partners, have kept investors on alert and raised alarm bells about the possibility of a recession.

Central bankers will also share quarterly updates on rate expectations, as well as their outlook for gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment on Wednesday. It’s unclear whether the Fed will maintain its December projection for two interest rate cuts in 2025.

“I think it may be one or zero cuts this year, particularly if the tariffs stick,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “I don’t think they’re going to try and bail out the economy by cutting rates, because they know that if they stoke inflation, they’re going to have to go back and start all over again.”

Investors will also closely watch Powell’s press conference at 1:30 p.m. ET for further hints about the state of the U.S. economy.

 

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