Treasury yields rise as investors weigh impact of Trump’s tariffs

March 5, 2025

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U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Wednesday as investors considered the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, along with new data on U.S. private payrolls.

At 8:18 a.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was more than 2 basis points higher at 4.236%. The 2-year Treasury yield was down 2 basis points, giving up an earlier gain, at 3.937%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01% and yields and prices have an inverted relationship.

Treasurys

Investors are concerned about the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs after 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico came into effect on Tuesday. The president also imposed an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Canada, Mexico, and China responded by preparing retaliatory measures against the U.S.

To be sure, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that a compromise with Canada and Mexico could be reached. Though Trump noted in an address to Congress that the administration was OK with a “little disturbance” from the levies.

“Officials have signaled willingness to tolerate short-term pain to implement their agenda, meaning a 10%-to-15% equity decline may be necessary to soften the administration’s stance. Policy uncertainty is already weighing on activity, and will continue to slow investment and hiring decisions,” strategists at BCA Research wrote.

New data on U.S. private payrolls didn’t help sentiment either.

ADP said private companies added just 77,000 jobs in February. That’s far below a Dow Jones forecast of 148,000. The report comes ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report.