“Trump somehow firing Powell would represent another black swan. If it happens, react fast and short swiftly,” Alex Krüger, a closely-watched trader and economist, posted to X and referring to so-called black swan events that are typically hard to predict and have extreme consequences.

“This is not something I’d trade in anticipation,” Krüger added. “When it comes to black swans, reacting fast works well.”

This week, Trump posted to his Truth Social account that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough” after Powell reiterated his intention to keep interest rates on hold due to uncertainty over Trump’s tariff trade war.

Last month, influential Democratic Party senator Elizabeth Warren said Trump could try to fire Powell, ominously warning, “nobody is safe.”

“If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me,” Trump later said in the Oval Office while taking questions from reporters during a visit with Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni. “I’m not happy with him.”

Krüger predicted that if Trump were to fire Powell, stock markets would “implode,” with the bitcoin price going “down hard then up as it progresses from a pure risk asset to a risk-safe haven hybrid.”

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Bitcoin has so far failed to trade in line with the traditional safe haven asset, gold. The gold price has shot higher as Trump’s global trade tariffs come into force, with the bitcoin price following stock markets lower.

This week, Powell reiterated that the Fed was waiting for greater clarity before making any moves, predicting Trump’s tariffs would likely worsen inflation.

“Powell stated that tariffs were not a catalyst for a rate cut,” David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said in emailed comments. “His remarks cast a fresh layer of doubt over the central bank’s path forward and renewed concerns over stagflation risk.”