Despite having invested heavily in clean energy under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. is now falling back into old habits, which is driving up its greenhouse gas emissions. Since coming into office in January, President Donald Trump has introduced a wide range of policies aimed at increasing fossil fuel production, reining in the renewable energy sector, and cutting funding for environmental research. These moves have led experts to reassess their greenhouse gas emissions outlooks for the U.S., as many increase their emissions forecasts. 

Upon entering office, Trump declared the U.S. was experiencing an “energy emergency” and introduced executive orders to reopen land and ocean for new fossil fuel exploration activities, marking a U-turn on restrictions introduced under Biden. Oil and gas production in the U.S. rose to record highs under President Biden, despite these restrictions, as the former leader sought to shift reliance away from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. However, Trump wants to push output even higher, repeatedly stating his mantra: “drill, baby, drill”. 

Trump has not only gone full force on fossil fuels, but he also announced plans to restrict renewable energy projects, which has made the industry wary of new investment in clean energy. In January, Trump introduced an executive order pausing approvals, permits, and loans for all wind energy projects both onshore and offshore, a move that is currently facing legal action from 18 states. Trump also halted the development of the Empire Wind 1 offshore wind farm in New York in April, for which he may also face legal action from Norwegian energy major Equinor. 

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has cut funding for a range of environmental initiatives, government agencies, and research projects. In May, the government announced plans for a significant reorganisation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), suggesting major cuts in staffing, particularly in the EPA’s scientific research arm. Staff levels could fall to levels not seen since the Ronald Reagan era in the 1980s. The Trump administration also proposed cutting billions of dollars in federal funding next year for a range of projects, including renewable energy and electric vehicle chargers, as well as halting programmes aimed at tackling climate change, as part of a wider request to cut $163 billion in 2026 federal spending. 

These moves are expected to contribute to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. under the Trump administration, compared to the decrease seen under Biden. To date, Trump has taken 145 initial actions to reverse environmental regulations and promote the use of fossil fuels. Michael Burger, a climate law expert at Columbia University, stated, “What we’ve seen in this first 100 days is unprecedented – the deregulatory ambition of this administration is mind-blowing.” Burger added, “They are doing things faster and with less process than last time, often disregarding the law. The intent is to shock, overwhelm and to overcome resistance through sheer force of numbers.”

While many of these actions will require further attention to come into practice, the U.S. is expected to increase its crude output to 15 million bpd from about 13.5 million bpd at present, according to Rystad Energy forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has repeatedly stated that to achieve global heating aims, countries must not approve any new fossil fuel projects. Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, stated, “The uptick in embodied emissions from forecast U.S. oil and gas production is worrying… The world can’t afford more climate chaos.” 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts “U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase by 1 percent in 2025, followed by a 1 percent decrease back to 2024 levels in 2026.” The EIA predicts, “Coal, petroleum products, and natural gas all contribute to changes in 2025 and 2026 emissions. Coal emissions make up most of the total emissions increase in 2025 and most of the decrease in 2026. These changes are associated with coal-fired electricity generation, which we forecast to increase by 6 percent in 2025 and decrease by 9 percent in 2026.”

Rhodium Group predicts that “rolling back executive action on climate and repealing the energy and tax policies that were enhanced and expanded through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) starting in 2025 could raise average household energy costs by as much as $489 a year in 2035, increase dependence on imported oil and gas, drive GHG emissions levels 24-36 percent higher compared to current policy in 2035, and risk substantial levels of private investment.” 

President Trump has moved far more quickly in his efforts to boost fossil fuel production, restrict renewable energy development, and cut climate funding during his first 100 days in office than during his first term as president. This is expected to have a significant impact on U.S. green transition progress and will likely drive up greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

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