• The U.S. government recently moved to expand Chevron’s license in Venezuela and approved an investment to boost production at the Leviathan natural gas field, both aimed at increasing output and improving commercial flexibility in key regions.

• Together, these decisions clarify Chevron’s long-term access to Venezuelan oil and Eastern Mediterranean gas, potentially reshaping expectations for its future production mix and cash generation profile.

• We’ll now examine how the expanded Venezuelan license, alongside the Leviathan investment, could influence Chevron’s existing investment narrative.

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To own Chevron, you need to be comfortable with a large, hydrocarbon-focused business that leans on big projects and disciplined capital returns. The key short term catalyst remains execution on recent growth projects and cost targets, while the biggest risk is still project and geopolitical exposure across its international upstream portfolio. The Venezuela license and Leviathan expansion both touch that risk directly, but do not fundamentally change Chevron’s overall risk profile right now.

The final investment decision to expand the Leviathan gas field looks especially relevant here, because it underlines Chevron’s push to grow long lived, capital intensive upstream assets at the same time that it is deepening exposure in Venezuela. Together, these updates sit squarely against the existing catalysts of higher production and cash generation on one side, and heightened project and geopolitical risk on the other.

Yet investors should also be aware that Chevron’s exposure to large, complex international projects could…

Read the full narrative on Chevron (it’s free!)

Chevron’s narrative projects $196.0 billion revenue and $21.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 1.2% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $8.1 billion from $13.7 billion today.

Uncover how Chevron’s forecasts yield a $172.08 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Twenty six members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place Chevron’s fair value between US$128 and US$326, with several estimates clustered above US$260. Set against this spread, the renewed focus on higher cost, geopolitically exposed upstream growth projects raises important questions about how different investors weigh future cash generation versus execution and country risk, and readers may want to compare several of these viewpoints before forming their own view.