Stock futures in the U.S. slipped early Tuesday, with tech names seeing the heaviest selling. Higher oil prices and renewed jitters around the artificial intelligence rally put the brakes on Wall Street’s latest record streak. The Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.7% recently; S&P 500 futures dropped 0.3%. Dow futures bucked the trend, pointing 0.3% higher. Futures contracts offer a look at where the indexes might open.
This shift is hitting at a delicate moment: the market’s tolerance for setbacks is razor thin. On Monday, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite notched fresh record closes—even with a packed lineup of earnings reports, key economic numbers, and a Federal Reserve rate call still to come this week.
Oil prices took the spotlight again, with Brent crude moving up to $111.20 a barrel and U.S. crude hitting $99.10. A U.S. official said President Donald Trump wasn’t satisfied with Iran’s latest offer to end the conflict since it skipped over Tehran’s nuclear program—so tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for oil, remain limited.
“Earnings season has helped markets look through the disruption,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Still, he cautioned that higher energy costs could “begin to bite” if crucial oil flows stay restricted. Reuters
Pre-market trading took a hit, especially in AI names. Citing the Wall Street Journal, Reuters reported OpenAI fell short of internal goals for both weekly users and revenue. Oracle, closely watched for its cloud exposure to OpenAI, slid 4.6% ahead of the open. Nvidia dropped 1.2%, AMD slipped 3.2%, and Arm was down a sharper 6.8%.
Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, pointed to the split between upbeat stocks and the more guarded moves in oil and bonds, saying “geopolitical developments remain an active” market variable. That’s the upshot this morning: stocks are holding up, but there’s not as much room for error. Reuters
Investors had more earnings to chew on. UPS shares slipped 3% before the bell after the company posted a 28% slide in adjusted quarterly profit—partly the result of pulling back on Amazon deliveries while leaning harder into higher-margin business in healthcare and data centers. FedEx, for its part, has been trimming costs and ramping up automation, too.
Shares in General Motors found firmer footing. The automaker reported first-quarter core profit up 22%, raised its full-year core profit outlook to a range of $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion, and CEO Mary Barra pointed to a “very dynamic environment.” Reuters
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting Tuesday, with markets betting policymakers will hold rates steady on Wednesday. What investors really want to hear: any Fed talk on how the war could stoke inflation, given that pricier oil tends to ripple through to other costs and could dampen the odds for rate cuts that would support stocks.
The spotlight shifts to Big Tech this week. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms are all slated to report on Wednesday, with Apple following on Thursday. Investors want details, especially around spending for AI infrastructure and data centers. These giants, Saglimbene noted, “have a lot to prove” if they want their stocks to push higher. Reuters
There’s risk on both sides here. Should Washington or Tehran dial things down, or if crude prices ease, tech stocks—and the whole market—could see buyers rush back in. Still, Sid Vaidya, chief investment strategist at TD Wealth, points out the rebound has happened without “a permanent resolution in place.” That leaves the door open for fresh volatility and potential losses if the conflict spills further into the real economy. Reuters
Right now, it looks like the Dow’s holding up, while the Nasdaq’s under some pressure, and the S&P 500 is wedged between optimism on earnings and stubborn worries about oil. The market’s next move might hinge less on any single earnings report and more on whether crude prices keep driving the narrative.
