New York, May 11, 2026, 6:02 a.m. EDT
U.S. stock-index futures barely budged early Monday, the mood turning cautious as another spike in oil prices reignited Wall Street’s old inflation headache. Dow futures inched up 0.01%, S&P 500 futures dipped 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked lower by 0.01%, according to Bloomberg data. These futures contracts typically signal where the main indexes could start the session.
This comes after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set fresh records on Friday, boosted by AI-related stocks and a U.S. jobs report that topped forecasts. Now, investors have limited wiggle room for another inflation shock from oil, especially just ahead of Tuesday’s consumer price index—or CPI—numbers, the government’s read on household costs for goods and services.
Crude bore the brunt. U.S. crude futures jumped roughly 2.3%, hitting $97.64 a barrel early in New York. Reuters had Brent hovering near $104 after President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s answer to a U.S. peace plan, with the Strait of Hormuz still mostly shut. That corridor, before the war broke out on Feb. 28, handled about a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.
Trump slammed Iran’s counterproposal as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” Reuters said. Tehran, meanwhile, pressed for an end to the U.S. blockade, demanded war reparations, sanctions relief, and formal recognition of its control over the strait. Esmaeil Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, described their plan as “generous and responsible,” per Reuters. Reuters
Energy prices are turning up the heat on the Fed rate outlook. Both BofA Global Research and Goldman Sachs dialed back their rate-cut timelines, pointing to higher energy costs and an unexpectedly sturdy labor market. BofA dropped any forecast for cuts this year; Goldman moved its expected first cut out to December, having previously marked September. According to Reuters, traders are betting Fed rates will stick in the 3.50% to 3.75% band through the end of the year.
Shares in airlines slipped in premarket trading on the back of the oil rally. Southwest Airlines and United Airlines both dropped 1% ahead of the open, with Delta Air Lines and American Airlines nudging 0.8% lower, as traders weighed the likelihood of pricier jet fuel.
AI and chip stocks sent a muddier signal, giving futures little direction. Premarket numbers from Investing.com put Micron ahead by 2.8%, Intel stronger by 6.5%, and AMD adding 2.2%. Nvidia slipped 0.8%, Tesla lost 1.1%, and Microsoft edged down 0.4%.
The split comes after a solid end to last week. Nvidia tacked on 1.8% Friday, and both Micron and Sandisk surged over 15%, with AI-driven demand for data center memory and storage names fueling the jump. The S&P 500 closed at 7,398.93, up 0.84%. Nasdaq climbed 1.71% to 26,247.08. The Dow edged up just 0.02% to 49,609.16.
Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory Services, summed it up for Reuters after Friday’s close: “This is an economy that seems hard to wreck.” He pointed to productivity, spending, the consumer wealth effect, and earnings as the big drivers. Reuters
The worry now: if oil rises far enough, it could upend the inflation calculus and dash what’s left of hopes for looser monetary policy. “Markets are very good at assimilating this and learning to live with things that we thought were impossible,” IG chief market strategist Chris Beauchamp told Reuters. “But if it goes up another 50%, then that will be another test that we have to navigate.” Reuters
Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at JPMorgan, pointed out that the Middle East conflict is now in its 11th week, with energy prices continuing to act as “headwinds rather than expansion-ending obstacles.” Every week the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, he said, the risk of a sharper move increases. Reuters
At the open, traders are zeroed in on a tight question: can AI and earnings keep soaking up the crude shock? John Evans at PVM Oil Associates points out the U.S. and Iran seem “as far away from agreement” as they were when the ceasefire kicked in. He doesn’t expect movement until after Trump’s China trip—where Beijing’s leverage over Tehran should figure in the talks. Investing.com
