Three tailwinds hit the market in quick succession: upbeat corporate earnings, renewed appetite for AI-focused stocks, and a sudden slide in oil prices that might help cool inflation. All this ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, the key U.S. jobs data that often shapes forecasts for Fed moves.
ADP reported private-sector payrolls climbed by 109,000 in April—the quickest increase since January 2025. Annual pay growth held at 4.4%. “Small and large employers are hiring, but we’re seeing softness in the middle,” said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson. ADP Media Center
AMD jumped almost 17%, hitting all-time highs after the company projected second-quarter revenue topping Wall Street’s estimates, driven by robust demand for data-center chips fueling AI and cloud-computing. Intel, Nvidia, and Super Micro Computer climbed as well. The Philadelphia semiconductor index notched a new record.
AMD CEO Lisa Su told investors she anticipates server growth will “accelerate meaningfully” as the company ramps up supply to match demand. The chipmaker projected revenue for the current quarter at $11.2 billion, give or take $300 million—topping the $10.53 billion analysts were looking for, according to Visible Alpha. Investopedia
“The market is responding to the de-escalation optimistically, on top of a strong earnings season,” said Josh Chastant, managing director for public markets at GuideStone Funds. Risk appetite stayed robust—not just a geopolitical story. S&P 500 companies beating profit estimates through May 1 at an unusually high clip, according to LSEG data, played a big part. Reuters
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, described the global shift as “a pretty punchy” move. Markets, he said, were verging on “buy everything” mode—a sentiment that showed up not just in U.S. equities but in global stocks climbing and oil dropping, as investors responded to reports of Washington and Tehran nearing a framework agreement. Reuters
Oil prices took another sharp turn. Brent dropped $7.63, or 6.94%, landing at $102.24 a barrel by late Wednesday morning in New York. Earlier, prices slipped under $100—last seen on April 22. U.S. crude shed 6.84% to settle at $95.27. According to Rystad Energy’s chief oil analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, any deal wouldn’t mean an immediate rebound in supply—she puts the normalization window at six to eight weeks.
The rally, though, is still riding on a deal that hasn’t been finalized. Iran said it’s reviewing the latest U.S. proposal. Sources pointed to a potential one-page memo that could kick off a 30-day window for talks covering the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. sanctions relief, and limits on Iran’s nuclear activity. Axios noted nothing’s settled; certain U.S. officials are still doubtful.
Fed jitters linger. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem flagged that inflation risks have tilted upward, warning rates might need to remain unchanged for an extended stretch. “A lot of uncertainty right now,” he said. Why does this matter? Higher rates tend to pressure stock valuations, slicing into the worth investors put on future profits. Reuters
Stock-specific headlines gave the market a lift. Disney gained ground, its adjusted earnings per share hitting $1.57 and revenue reaching $25.2 billion—both beating LSEG forecasts. New CEO Josh D’Amaro assured investors the company isn’t slowing down: streaming, live sports, parks, and cruise lines remain in focus.
Uber jumped roughly 7% after projecting second-quarter gross bookings in a range of $56.25 billion to $57.75 billion — a step above analyst estimates of $56.07 billion. Adam Ballantyne, senior analyst at Cambiar Investors, said the outlook pointed to “durable demand.” He also sees Uber with more space to grow, both in U.S. suburbs and abroad. Reuters
