VanEck Says Bitcoin Could Hit $53M. Here’s What It Would Take

January 13, 2026

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Bitcoin could reach $53.4 million by 2050, according to VanEck.

VanEck said in a Jan. 8 post that in its bull case, Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, sending its value to $53.4 million by 2050 at a 29% compound annual growth rate. In this scenario, BTC would also have to equal or leapfrog gold as a reserve asset, comprising nearly 30% of global financial assets, the company said.

Bitcoin was most recently trading near $92,000, meaning VanEck’s bull case target would require a 58,000% rally.

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Meanwhile, VanEck’s base case is perhaps no less ambitious. The company says in its base case, Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050, representing a 15% CAGR and a 3,050% upside. Here, it said the asset could make up 5%-10% of trade, 5% of domestic GDP and 1.66% of financial assets.

In the bearish case, VanEck said Bitcoin could trade at $130,000 by 2050 at 2% CAGR, representing a 41% upside. In this scenario, the asset fails to capture any part of international trade and domestic GDP.

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Key to VanEck’s valuation is the recognition of Bitcoin’s potential as a reserve asset, especially by central banks, amid monetary debasement.

At the moment, however, while several governments hold Bitcoin, not many central banks appear keen on holding the asset. Only the Czech National Bank has purchased Bitcoin as of Monday. The central bank announced the purchase in November, saying that it was for a “test portfolio” and not part of its reserves.

The recent VanEck report comes despite a challenging year for Bitcoin in which it underperformed equities and gold amid tariff shocks and fears of an artificial intelligence bubble.

“As developed markets face a sovereign debt super-cycle, the risk of zero exposure to the most established non-sovereign reserve asset may now exceed the volatility risk of the position itself,” VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote.

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