Bitcoin is poised to capture half of gold’s market capitalization, according to investment firm VanEck, echoing sentiment that the world’s largest crypto mirrors the physical properties of the yellow metal.

“At today’s record gold price, that implies an equivalent value of $644,000 per Bitcoin,” Mathew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, posted in a Tuesday tweet, articulating the firm’s bullish thesis of Bitcoin capturing half of gold’s $26 trillion market capitalization. 

Bitcoin’s current market cap stands at approximately $2.48 trillion, and is up more than 12% over the past 30 days, according to CoinGecko data. 

The forecast comes after Bitcoin surged on Tuesday to a record high of $126,080. The top crypto is down 1.20% from its peak and is currently trading at $124,529. 

“VanEck’s thesis is directionally correct but needs context on timing,” Derek Lim, Head of Research at market-making firm Caladan, told Decrypt. 

“Reaching half of gold’s market cap requires a 5.6x appreciation from here,” he said. “Given Bitcoin’s shift to stable, absolute dollar gains of $50,000 to 60,000 per cycle rather than exponential surges, this target is more realistic over 5 to 10 years, not necessarily within this single cycle.”

The comparison comes as gold has notably outperformed Bitcoin in the near term. Year-to-date, gold is up 49%, including a 17% gain in the third quarter, while Bitcoin has returned 31% and 6.9% over the same periods, respectively, according to TradingView data.

“JPMorgan has already dubbed gold and Bitcoin the ‘debasement trade’; pairing them together is the first step,” Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt.  “Reaching half of gold’s market cap, and eventually even parity, makes sense in that framework.”

The long view

VanEck’s long-term vision is based on a few core assumptions—adoption from younger consumers in emerging markets, resolution of Bitcoin’s scalability by emerging Layer 2 solutions, and a steady increase in institutional adoption, it wrote in a July 24, 2024, blog post. 

The firm’s research suggests that by 2050, Bitcoin could be used to settle 10% of international trade and 5% of domestic trade, leading central banks to hold 2.5% of their assets in the crypto.

Looking further out, Lim outlined a bullish but measured trajectory for Bitcoin. 

“The most likely path sees Bitcoin reaching 30 to 50% of gold’s market cap within 10 years, then approaching parity later,” he said. 

Based on his analysis, that scenario would place Bitcoin in a range of $300,000 to $500,000 by 2035, assuming the historical growth rate moderates and key structural tailwinds, such as the generational wealth transfer and institutional adoption, remain intact.

VanEck, however, arrives at a potential long-term Bitcoin price of $2.9 million by 2050 by applying a velocity of money equation, which would translate to a total market cap of $61 trillion. 

The firm further estimates that the underlying Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem, which facilitates that growth, could be worth an additional $7.6 trillion.

The investment firm’s ambitious long-term Bitcoin forecast stands in stark contrast to immediate technical considerations. 

An event worth watching

The last two cycles formed peaks between 500 and 550 days after the halving event. Since Bitcoin’s last halving on April 20, 2024, 534 days have elapsed, raising concerns about history repeating itself. 

The Bitcoin halving refers to a programmed event that occurs roughly every four years, reducing the miner block rewards by half and creating a supply scarcity.

“While the 550-day mark has historically been significant, it has not always marked the absolute peak,” Lim added. 

He noted that the current cycle is fundamentally different due to the involvement of institutional investors via spot exchange-traded funds, leading to compressed volatility. 

“This isn’t the speculative frenzy of the past; it’s the maturation of an asset class,” Lim noted, suggesting that the “86% gain on a much higher base, combined with shallow drawdowns, suggests this is sustainable growth, not a cycle nearing its expiration date.”

McMillin also expects a departure from the aforementioned pattern. 

“In past cycles, Bitcoin peaked around 500–550 days after the halving. This time, we expect it to run longer,” he said.

 “The Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has only just begun,” he added. “While a potential Trump tariff shock would extend the inflation and debasement narrative. Put together, we see the top coming at least 180 days later than usual.”