The XRP versus Bitcoin debate just went viral. Crypto influencer Bird claims that by year-end, 5,000 XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) could be worth 1 Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC)—implying an XRP $18.40 target that would represent nearly 800% upside from current levels. The bold forecast has ignited fierce debate about whether XRP outperforms Bitcoin in the coming months.

With the altcoin season momentum building, the timing couldn’t be more provocative. Here’s a breakdown of the math behind the $18.40 XRP price target, and whether this bold forecast has any shot at becoming reality.

Crypto Influencer Bird Predicts 5,000 XRP Equals 1 Bitcoin in 2026

Bird is a well-known commentator within the XRP community who frequently shares market insights and bold forecasts on X/Twitter. In a recent post, Bird claimed that by the end of 2026, the XRP/BTC ratio would reach 1:5,000—meaning 5,000 XRP would be worth the same as 1 BTC.

This prediction taps into a long-standing belief among XRP supporters that the token is undervalued relative to its utility and adoption potential. Bird’s forecast suggests a dramatic shift in market dynamics, where XRP significantly outpaces Bitcoin over the next twelve months.

The idea fits a familiar narrative. Altcoins, particularly XRP, often lag Bitcoin during the first leg of a bull run but later surge to outperform it. XRP holders have been waiting for this rotation for years, and Bird’s prediction has given that hope fresh momentum as 2026 rolls on.

The Math: XRP Price Needs 794% Gains to Hit $18.40

The math behind Bird’s prediction is straightforward.. In early January 2026, the XRP/BTC ratio traded at approximately 0.00002235. For the target of 5,000 XRP per Bitcoin to be realized, the ratio must reach 0.0002 BTC per XRP token—a 794% gain at current XRP levels.

At Bitcoin’s current price of $96,000, the ratio works out to exactly $18.40 per XRP.

With 100 billion XRP tokens in existence (including those held in Ripple’s escrow), an $18.40 price implies a total valuation of $1.84 trillion. That would put XRP right alongside Ethereum and within striking distance of Bitcoin itself. That would place XRP firmly alongside Ethereum and within striking distance of Bitcoin’s trillion-dollar valuation.

Why Altcoins Often Outperform Bitcoin in the Second Phase of Bull Runs

Bird’s prediction isn’t as crazy as it sounds when you look at how past bull markets have played out. Bitcoin typically leads, breaking new all-time highs first. But altcoins often catch fire in the second phase, when capital rotates out of Bitcoin and into higher-risk assets.

A few dynamics drive this rotation.

Profit Taking and Reinvestment: Investors who rode Bitcoin’s initial rally often move profits into large-cap altcoins like Ethereum and XRP, betting they have more room to run.

Risk Appetite Expands: As confidence builds, fear of missing out shifts from Bitcoin to the tokens that haven’t moved yet, and trading volumes and liquidity in altcoins spike.

Bitcoin Dominance Falls: Historically, the biggest altcoin rallies have coincided with Bitcoin’s market share dropping—sometimes to as low as 38%. When dominance starts sliding, it’s usually a sign that altcoin season has arrived.

Is 5,000 XRP Equalling 1 BTC Realistic or Pure Speculation? Bull, Base, and Bear Cases

Can Bird’s prediction actually happen? Here’s how the scenarios break down.

Bull Case ($8-$18)

This scenario assumes everything goes right. Total annual ETF inflows could reach $10 billion—a  level Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick believes could push the XRP price to $8. The CLARITY Act passes, giving banks the green light to hold and settle with XRP directly.

For Bird’s specific $18.40 target, XRP would need to outperform Bitcoin by over 700% and reclaim its 2017 ratio peak of 0.0002 BTC. It’s a stretch, but not impossible if altcoin season fully ignites.

Base Case ($3-$4) 

This scenario assumes XRP continues gaining institutional support but doesn’t close the gap with Bitcoin’s market cap. ETFs attract a few billion in assets, Bitcoin dominance falls to the 40–50% range, and XRP rides the altcoin rotation to modest gains. This lines up with consensus analyst estimates around $3.00 to $3.50.

Bear Case ($2-$2.50)

Macro headwinds or ecosystem challenges could prevent an XRP price breakout. Geopolitical turmoil could send capital back into Bitcoin and gold. Banks could stick with private ledgers and established stablecoins instead of adopting XRP. Monthly escrow releases of 1 billion XRP, combined with fading ETF demand could cap any upside, leaving XRP to trade just above $2.

What This Means for XRP Investors in 2026

Bird’s prediction that 5,000 XRP will equal 1 Bitcoin has captured the crypto community’s attention for good reason. The math checks out—$18.40 is what you get if the ratio hits 0.0002. Whether XRP can actually get there is another question entirely.

The early signs in January 2026 are encouraging. XRP is outperforming Bitcoin, ETF inflows keep coming, and exchange reserves are at multi-year lows. That’s the kind of setup that precedes big moves.

But 794% outperformance against Bitcoin in a single year would be historic. Even if XRP falls short of $18.40, the XRP/BTC ratio is worth watching closely. How it moves over the coming months will tell us a lot about whether this prediction was visionary or just viral