Washington greenhouse gas emissions hit lows not seen in decades during the first year of the COVID pandemic, according to the state’s latest emissions inventory released Monday.
But as lockdown directives eased in 2021, emissions somewhat rebounded.
As the pandemic put many things on pause, and more people worked from home, overall greenhouse gas emissions dipped 13.8% in 2020 to 88.3 million metric tons. In 2021, increases, largely from the transportation sector, drove an 8.8% rise in emissions.
The state’s emissions that year remained below the highs seen just before the pandemic, according to the state’s analysis. Emissions in 2019 had penciled out to 102.1 million metric tons — about a 7% increase from 2018 and the highest since 2007.
State greenhouse gas emissions see pandemic dip
Greenhouse gas emissions fell in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. Then emissions rebounded in 2021, mainly driven by an increase in transportation by planes, boats and trains. Emissions by passenger cars and trucks remained below prepandemic levels.
While it may be hard to draw conclusions from the reductions seen in the early years of the pandemic, future data might shed light on whether the state’s climate policies are driving the intended greenhouse gas emission reductions.
The state Legislature required the state to reduce total emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. Emissions were 6% below that limit in 2020 and climbed 2.3% above the limit in 2021 to 96.1 million metric tons.
Overall, from 1990 to 2021, per capita emissions declined by 35.9% and emissions per dollar of gross domestic product declined by 64.2%.
The electricity sector saw the biggest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 2019 to 2021, falling nearly 14.6%. The state cited record wind and solar production, alongside reduced reliance on coal and methane gas use. An uptick in hydropower production also played a role.
The Clean Energy Transformation Act, which took effect in 2021, requires electric utilities to transition to 100% clean electricity by 2045.
Since 2021, landmark state climate policies have gone into effect that make emissions reductions enforceable. The clean fuel standard is expected to cut statewide greenhouse gas emissions by 4.3 million metric tons a year by 2038, and the Climate Commitment Act requires the state’s businesses and institutions that pollute the most to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or purchase allowances at quarterly auctions to cover them.
The state has also restricted the use of superpolluting gases known as hydrofluorocarbons, and established new vehicle emissions standards.
“The really interesting story will be the next one to two inventories, where we start to see the impact of those policies,” said Joel Creswell, program manager for the state’s climate pollution reduction program.
The state relies on data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to produce the emissions inventory. The state Department of Ecology is aiming to rebuild the inventory using state data and reduce reporting lag, Creswell said.
State polices like the Climate Commitment Act also require polluting businesses to produce emissions data for compliance with the program.
Global emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other sources are fueling long-term climate change that can be felt as more intense drought, storms and flooding, among other things.
Climate impacts are not distributed equitably among communities, instead disproportionately affecting communities of color, Indigenous communities, low-income neighborhoods and residents of the Northwest most dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods, according to the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.
Emissions from the transportation sector remained the state’s largest source of greenhouse gases, totaling 38.2 million metric tons in 2021. That’s nearly 40% of the state’s overall emissions, and about 86% of the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 2020 to 2021.
State greenhouse gas emissions in 2021
Aviation, marine and rail emissions alone accounted for 78.9% of the rise in transportation emissions, according to the state.
Meanwhile, emissions from passenger cars and trucks remained below prepandemic levels in 2021, potentially reflecting that more people worked from home. Emissions from passenger vehicles are anticipated to see further declines as Washington residents adopt lower-emission vehicles at record rates, and after the state set a path to phase out the sale of new fossil-fueled cars.
Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid cars accounted for about 20% of all vehicles sold in Washington in 2023, according to the state, more than double the national average of 9.5%.
The building sector produced about 23.7 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2021, but saw some of the greatest emissions reductions. The sector’s emissions, largely from burning fossil fuels for heating homes and businesses, and energy used by industries, were over a third less than their 1999 peak, and 5% lower than 1990 emissions.
Electricity emissions saw the biggest decrease of any sector from 2019 to 2021. This includes emissions from coal and natural gas-fired power, and power generated from petroleum and waste.
Emissions from coal-fired power generation dropped by 46.7% from 2019 to 2020 and rose by 8.6% in 2021, according to the state. In 2022, emissions declined by 5.7%. (The state shared 2022 emissions data only for electricity generation.)
The TransAlta Centralia coal plant, the only coal plant operating in the state, will shut down by the end of this year. One of its units has already shuttered. Washington utilities are also required to divest from the Colstrip power plant in Montana.
Electricity emissions from natural gas (methane) also fell 32.3% from 2019 to 2020 and rose 11.9% in 2021, the state said. In 2022, they went down 19.1%.
The combination of record-breaking heat and extreme cold in 2019 caused a spike in energy demand for heating and cooling. At the same time, there was low snowpack, thus less water behind the dams to spin turbines for electricity.
Extreme weather is anticipated to have less of an effect on these annual fluctuations in emissions as policies take hold that require a transition away from fossil fuels.
Material from The Seattle Times archives was used in this report.
Isabella Breda: 206-652-6536 or
ibreda@seattletimes.com. Seattle Times staff reporter Isabella Breda covers the environment.
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