Watch Tesla Earnings on February 10, 2016

E-Trade published this informationBased on prior guidance of 1.6-1.8k vehicles/week in ’16, Tesla projects total shipments to increase from 50.6k in 2015 to 88.4k (mid-point) in 2016, +75% y/y. We expect 2016 deliveries at the low-end guidance as Model X production ramp appears to be progressing slower than expected (prelim Q4 results indicated 238/week in the last week of 2015 vs. management’s prior guide of several hundred/week by end of 2015). We are cutting our target shipments for 2016 to 84k. Given the little known details of the Model 3 so far, we see the March reveal of the car as a potential catalyst. However, given Tesla’s history of delayed launches, we expect delays to the current late-2017 launch timing. Additionally, the mass-market EV segment is becoming increasingly crowded with the introduction of the Chevy Bolt this year. Together with low gas prices, we believe there is significant downside to Tesla’s target 500k shipments by ’20.