• Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported third quarter 2025 results showing revenue of US$526.78 million, down from US$671.9 million the previous year, and a net loss of US$5.52 million versus last year’s net income of US$3.8 million; the company also lowered its 2025 shipment guidance to 14.6–16.0 million tons of coal.

• Despite these challenges, Alpha emphasized strong liquidity, improved coal sales cost performance, and a focus on high-quality metallurgical coal exports in its latest updates.

• We’ll explore how Alpha’s reduced shipment outlook and recent cost measures could impact its long-term growth narrative in a changing market.

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Owning Alpha Metallurgical Resources requires conviction in a turnaround for global steel demand and sustained premium pricing for metallurgical coal, despite current losses and reduced shipment guidance. The recent results, falling revenue and a shift to net loss, heighten concern over near-term earnings, but do not materially alter the most immediate catalyst: the prospective cash benefit from future tax credits under federal critical minerals legislation. Primary risks now revolve around ongoing steel sector weakness, which continues to pressure both prices and volumes.

Alpha’s latest announcement revising its 2025 coal shipment guidance further underscores this risk: management now expects total shipments of 14.6–16.0 million tons, the second downward adjustment this year. This shift comes as productivity and cost reductions are touted as a buffer, but tightening guidance tracks with underwhelming demand, a factor that could constrain the upside from expected policy support if conditions persist.

However, investors should also keep in mind that ongoing cost improvements may not fully offset the challenges posed by…

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Alpha Metallurgical Resources’ outlook expects $2.9 billion in revenue and $505.0 million in earnings by 2028. This implies a 7.3% annual revenue growth and a $542.2 million increase in earnings from the current $-37.2 million loss.

Uncover how Alpha Metallurgical Resources’ forecasts yield a $184.50 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

Six unique fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from as low as US$14.69 to as high as US$524.72. Yet, persistent weak steel demand remains a widespread concern that could directly limit Alpha’s ability to achieve profitability, prompting you to consider the broader consequences as you review these differing viewpoints.