Ethereum (ETH) is entering November with cautious optimism. The Ethereum price is up 2.2% weekly but has given up nearly 3% in 24 hours, even after the Fed’s rate cut. October ended on a weak note with a 6.8% monthly loss, but historically, November has favored Ethereum — averaging 6.93% monthly gains, with last year’s surge being the standout.

As new on-chain trends form, all eyes are on whether ETH can repeat its strong November pattern.

Ethereum’s November record leans bullish. It has posted average gains of above 6.9% in the past eight years, with 2024’s 47.4% rally marking one of its best months on record.

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This time, despite October’s weakness, the market structure suggests a potential setup for a similar rebound, as one of the selling incentives keeps declining.

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The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) — which gauges whether investors are sitting on profits or losses — has dipped from 0.43 to 0.39 since October 26, a 9.3% decline. That’s close to the monthly low of 0.38, a level that previously triggered a 13% jump in the ETH price (from $3,750 to $4,240).

This drop means investors’ incentive to sell is fading, a common precursor to price stabilization. If this historical pattern holds, November could mark the point where selling pressure transitions into reaccumulation. But wait, some groups are already accumulating.

While long-term holders have pulled back, whales are quietly building positions.

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According to Santiment, wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH increased their balance from 99.28 million to 100.92 million ETH through October — steady buying despite a 7% monthly price decline. That’s akin to adding 1.64 million ETH, worth roughly $6.4 billion at the current price.

Meanwhile, the Holder Accumulation Ratio (HAR) from Glassnode shows the opposite. HAR measures how many addresses are increasing their balances versus those reducing them — a higher reading means more accumulation, while a lower one signals selling pressure.

In Ethereum’s case, HAR has dropped since October-end, from 31.27% to 30.45%, showing that long-term holders have slowed down accumulation and are trimming exposure instead.

This divergence suggests that whales are driving demand, while older ETH holders are trimming exposure — a dynamic that could define ETH’s direction in November.

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As Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC, told BeInCrypto exclusively,

“Recalibration into higher-beta assets is expected to accelerate as Bitcoin stabilizes above support. Ether fits this positioning well, offering yield-earning potential through staking and strong upside due to adoption,” he mentioned.

That recalibration narrative helps explain the current split — with whales positioning early for growth assets while long-term holders remain cautious. Fundamentally, this reflects shifting confidence. Whales are supposedly seeing Ethereum’s staking yield and expanding tokenized infrastructure as reasons to accumulate, while holders might still be waiting for stronger market confirmation.

If the Holder Accumulation Ratio stabilizes in November, it could signal that retail conviction is catching up to whale confidence, amplifying the impact of this broader recalibration.

On the 2-day chart, ETH shows signs of a hidden bullish divergence — a setup in which the price makes higher lows while the RSI makes lower lows. Between August 21 and October 28, ETH’s price formed a higher low, while RSI dropped, indicating that sellers are losing strength.

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This pattern supports the idea that whale conviction could overpower near-term weakness, validating the broader uptrend. Ethereum is still up over 5% over the past three months — a validation of the said uptrend. Currently, Ethereum trades near $3,860, facing resistance around $4,070 and $4,240.

Young also highlights similar key zones:

“A break above $4,200 could open the path toward $4,500–$4,700, while rejection may simply prolong accumulation,” he highlighted.

These levels align closely with Ethereum’s current structure, where $4,240 serves as a critical confirmation point. A close above it could push ETH toward $4,620, marking the upper end of its long-term channel. That level also puts the ETH price in the range projected by Young.

He further explained that the broader setup still leans positive despite short-term hesitation:

“Either way, the macro structure appears constructive — the network continues to scale, transaction demand remains robust, and staking keeps absorbing supply pressure,” he further explained.

Key supports sit at $3,790 and $3,510. Falling below $3,510 would invalidate the bullish bias, but the hidden divergence and whale accumulation point toward a gradual recovery bias heading into mid-November.