Original Author: Michael Nadeau
Original Compilation: Luffy, Foresight News

Tom Lee recently stated at the Korea Blockchain Week that the mid-term target price for Ethereum is $60,000, and he mentioned that Ethereum is currently in a super cycle lasting 10-15 years.

If his judgment is correct, this super cycle will progress in waves, spanning multiple cycles, alternating between bull and bear markets.

At present, we are in a bull market, but bull markets do not last forever.

Looking back at history, Ethereum fell by 94% in 2018 and by 80% in 2022, so we have reason to anticipate another significant correction in the future.

Currently, we cannot determine when the correction will occur, but by tracking several key indicators, we can reference the levels Ethereum has reached in past cycles to provide a basis for future trends.

Key Indicator Analysis and Price Targets

200-Week Moving Average

Data Source: The DeFi Report

Currently, Ethereum’s trading price is 92% above its 200-week moving average ($2,400).

During the 2021 cycle, when the market peaked, Ethereum’s price was 492% above the 200-week moving average.

Scenario Analysis:

• 200% above the 200-week moving average: Ethereum price is $7,300
• 250% above the 200-week moving average: Ethereum price is $8,500
• 300% above the 200-week moving average: Ethereum price is $9,800
• 350% above the 200-week moving average: Ethereum price is $11,000
• 400% above the 200-week moving average: Ethereum price is $12,200

Note: The 200-week moving average is a dynamic indicator, but over time, we are gradually replacing price data from about four years ago in the $3,000-$4,000 range for Ethereum. Therefore, it is expected that the fluctuations of the 200-week moving average will be very small by the end of this year.

Ethereum Price to Realized Price Ratio

Data Source: The DeFi Report, Glassnode

The realized price can serve as an alternative benchmark for cost. Since January 1, 2017, the average ratio of Ethereum price to realized price has been 1.6. Currently, this ratio is 1.9.

In the 2017 cycle, the peak ratio was 5; in the 2021 cycle, the peak ratio in April was 3.5, and in November it was 2.9.

Scenario Analysis (assuming the ratio reaches 2.9):

• If the realized price is $3,000: Ethereum price is $8,700
• If the realized price is $3,500: Ethereum price is $10,200
• If the realized price is $4,000: Ethereum price is $11,600

MVRV Z-Score

Data Source: The DeFi Report, Glassnode

The Z-score measures how much the market cap is above or below the on-chain cost benchmark in terms of “volatility units.” A higher Z-score indicates that the market is overheated; a negative Z-score indicates that the market is undervalued.

Since January 1, 2017, the average Z-score for Ethereum has been 0.99, indicating an overall optimistic market sentiment.

The current Z-score is 1.66, which is above the historical average but has not yet reached an overheated state.

In the 2021 cycle, the peak Z-score in April was 6.5, and in November it was 3.48.

Scenario Analysis:

• If the Z-score is 2.21: Ethereum price is $7,000
• If the Z-score is 2.77: Ethereum price is $8,000
• If the Z-score is 3.33: Ethereum price is $9,000
• If the Z-score is 3.9: Ethereum price is $10,000

Note: Assuming the realized price increases by 22% (to $3,000) by the end of this year. For reference, the realized price has increased by 24% since April of this year.

Ethereum to Bitcoin Market Cap Ratio

Data Source: The DeFi Report

Currently, Ethereum’s market cap is about 23.4% of Bitcoin’s market cap.

In November 2021, Ethereum’s market cap reached 55.5% of Bitcoin’s market cap.

If Bitcoin’s price reaches $150,000 (up 23% from the current price), its market cap will reach $3 trillion.

Scenario Analysis:

• If Ethereum’s market cap is 35% of Bitcoin’s market cap: Ethereum’s total market cap is $1.05 trillion, corresponding to a price of $8,658
• If Ethereum’s market cap is 45% of Bitcoin’s market cap: Ethereum’s total market cap is $1.35 trillion, corresponding to a price of $11,132
• If Ethereum’s market cap is 55% of Bitcoin’s market cap: Ethereum’s total market cap is $1.64 trillion, corresponding to a price of $13,559

The core question is whether Bitcoin will see a significant increase? Compared to the last cycle, will Ethereum’s rise relative to Bitcoin be moderate or explosive?

Ethereum to Nasdaq Index Ratio

Data Source: The DeFi Report

In May and November 2021, the peak ratios of Ethereum to the Nasdaq index were 0.31 and 0.30, respectively.

The current ratio is 0.20, with the Nasdaq index currently at 22,788 points.

If the Nasdaq index rises by 5% by the end of this year (a total increase of 23% for the year), its points will reach 23,927.

Ethereum price scenario analysis:

• If the ratio is 0.25: Ethereum price is $5,981
• If the ratio is 0.30: Ethereum price is $7,178
• If the ratio is 0.35: Ethereum price is $8,374
• If the ratio is 0.40: Ethereum price is $9,570

Our baseline assumption is that the upward trend of the Ethereum to Nasdaq index ratio will continue, and this cycle will set a new high (exceeding 0.30).

Summary

Our basic assumptions are as follows:

• Ethereum price is 250% above the 200-week moving average, corresponding to a price of $8,500;
• The realized price reaches $3,000, and if the price to realized price ratio is 2.9, the corresponding Ethereum price is $8,700;
• Ethereum’s market cap reaches 35% of Bitcoin’s market cap, and if Bitcoin’s price is $150,000, the corresponding Ethereum price is $8,600;
• The Ethereum to Nasdaq index ratio sets a new high, and if the ratio is 0.35, the corresponding Ethereum price is $8,300.

If the bull market continues, Ethereum’s price may break through $10,000; if the market turns bearish, Bitcoin’s peak increase will be limited, and Ethereum will also face pressure.

At the same time, as market sentiment heats up, there is increasing discussion about “extended cycles,” which reminds me of the “super cycle” narrative that was prevalent in 2021.

As we mentioned earlier, the baseline assumption remains: within this quarter, Ethereum will reach the peak of this cycle.
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