The gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey often provide a glimpse of what’s to come nationwide in the following year’s midterm elections.

Will the political tides turn to disrupt the Republicans’ federal government trifecta, pitting President Donald Trump against a Democratic House or Senate in the final two years of his term? Or will the red wave prevail?

While Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states to hold off-year elections for governor in 2025, the winners resemble far more than an early indicator for national politics: They represent what’s to come for their state’s respective cannabis policies.

In Virginia, former Democratic U.S. House Rep. Abigail Spanberger is squaring off against current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in what might be the most impactful race for cannabis policy this year. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited, has blocked state lawmakers from implementing an adult-use cannabis sales bill through his veto power for the past two years.

While former Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam signed a bill to legalize adult-use cannabis possession and home grows for those 21 years and older in 2021, the Democrats who controlled the state’s General Assembly at the time shot themselves in the foot by including a “reenactment” clause to legalize a commercial marketplace for licensed dispensary sales.

When Republicans took control of the governorship and House in 2022, it left the Old Dominion State in a legalization limbo, allowing adults to possess cannabis but nowhere to legally buy it. Democrats regained a majority in the Virginia House in 2024, but Youngkin’s prohibition stance has remained a barrier for reform.

In New Jersey, Democratic U.S. House Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Republican state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli are vying for the governor’s seat. Incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, is term-limited.

Murphy signed the state’s adult-use legalization bill in February 2021, after voters backed a legislatively referred constitutional amendment by a 67% majority the previous fall. While the 2021 legislation established a regulatory framework for a commercial program, it did not provide adults the freedom to grow their own plants at home.

Among the 24 states to legalize adult-use cannabis in the U.S., only four prohibit home grows for those 21 years and older: Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey and Washington. While Illinois and Washington allow qualified medical cannabis patients to grow cannabis plants, New Jersey and Delaware ban home cultivation for everyone.

Below are Virginia and New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial candidates’ stances on cannabis, with insights on what the Nov. 4 election outcomes could mean for each state.

Virginia

Incumbent: Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has served as Virginia’s top executive since January 2022 but is ineligible to run for re-election because the state’s Constitution prevents governors from serving consecutive terms.

2025 Candidates:

• Abigail Spanberger (Democrat)
• Winsome Earle-Sears (Republican)

Poll: A poll of 808 likely Virginia voters conducted Sept. 8-14 by Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 12 points, 52% to 40%, with 8% remaining undecided.

Current Reform Status: Adult-use possession and home cultivation only (no legal sales), and a fully regulated commercial program for medical cannabis.

What’s at stake? Virginia’s next governor will likely hold the keys to allowing a regulated and taxed marketplace for adult-use cultivation, manufacturing and dispensary sales. Despite adults 21 and older being allowed to possess up to 1 ounce of cannabis since July 2021, they lack access to tested products without a regulatory structure in place.

Candidate Polices on Cannabis:

Abigail Spanberger is a former Democratic U.S. House representative who served Virginia’s 7th District from 2019 to 2025. Previously, she worked undercover with the Central Intelligence Agency and at the U.S. Postal Inspection Service, where she focused on federal narcotics and money laundering cases. A pro-cannabis candidate, Spanberger supports an adult-use marketplace. “I look forward to working with our General Assembly to find a path forward to creating a legalized retail market for cannabis that both prioritizes public safety and grows Virginia’s economy,” Spanberger told WTVRin August.

While serving in the U.S. House, Spanberger twice voted in support of the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, legislation that would deschedule and decriminalize cannabis by removing it from the Controlled Substances Act. In addition, she voted in support of the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act, legislation aimed at providing state-licensed cannabis businesses a pathway to traditional banking services.

Winsome Earle-Searsis Virginia’s current Republican lieutenant governor, who has served alongside Gov. Glenn Youngkin for the past four years. She is a former state lawmaker who represented the 90th District in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2002 to 2004. Much like Youngkin, Earle-Sears is no friend to cannabis. During her 2021 campaign trail for lieutenant governor, she said adult-use cannabis is “going to destroy us,” and “I had to let somebody go who worked for me. I found out he was on marijuana. You can’t work for me. You’re going to destroy somebody’s home. You’re going to crash. It’s going to decimate us, because marijuana is a gateway drug.”

New Jersey

Incumbent: Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, first elected in 2017, is term-limited and cannot seek re-election in November 2025.

2025 Candidates:

• Mikie Sherrill (Democrat)
• Jack Ciattarelli (Republican)

Poll: A poll of 1,238 likely New Jersey voters conducted Sept. 11-15 by Quinnipiac University showed Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by 8 points, 49% to 41%, with 4% undecided. The remaining percentage of those surveyed either refused to answer or supported third-party candidates.

Current Reform Status: Regulated adult-use (launched sales in April 2022) and medical cannabis programs.

What’s at stake? New Jersey’s next governor could help shape future policies around home cultivation, with the Garden State representing just one of four adult-use markets where those 21 and older cannot legally grow cannabis in their private residences.

Candidate Polices on Cannabis:

Mikie Sherrill currently serves in the U.S. House for New Jersey’s 11th District. She is a U.S. Naval Academy graduate, Navy helicopter pilot and a former federal prosecutor. A pro-cannabis candidate, Sherrill supports allowing medical cannabis patients and those 21 years and older to home cultivate cannabis under a framework of “common-sense regulations, safeguards and limits,” the New Jersey Monitorreported in March.

At the federal level, Sherrill voted in 2019 and 2021 in favor of passing the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, legislation that would deschedule and decriminalize cannabis by removing it from the Controlled Substances Act. She also voted multiple times in favor of passing the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act, legislation that would bring safe harbor to depository institutions wishing to provide financial services to state-legal cannabis businesses.

Jack Ciattarelli is a former state lawmaker who served in the New Jersey General Assembly from 2011 to 2018. He is a certified public accountant and an entrepreneur who founded two small businesses. Ciattarelli supports allowing home grows for medical cannabis purposes only, adding that in considering adult-use home cultivation, he wouldn’t want to take “the carpet out from beneath the feet of people who’ve invested a whole lot of money because the Murphy administration failed to consider this particular dynamic,” the New Jersey Monitorreported.

Leading up to Ciattarelli’s unsuccessful 2021 bid for governor, when he lost to Murphy, 51% to 48%, Ciattarelli said in a debate that he supported decriminalization but opposed adult-use legalization. “We could have addressed social injustice with the decriminalization of marijuana, not the approval of recreational marijuana,” he said.