Tesla (TSLA 0.86%) gave investors mixed financial results to think about. For the first quarter of 2026, the business reported weaker-than-expected revenue of $22.4 billion. But its adjusted earnings per share of $0.41 beat analyst estimates.

This “Magnificent Seven” stock is off by just 2% from its pre-announcement price. It’s down 17% in 2026 and 24% below its record from last December.

Where will Tesla be in 10 years? It’s easy to believe that this stock faces a binary outcome.

The best-case scenario can lead to incredible financial performance

CEO Elon Musk is widely viewed as one of the most visionary entrepreneurs of our time. He’s also a great marketer. Musk has convinced the investment world that his business will be radically different in the future.

Tesla is focused on tobotaxis and full self-driving technology. On the company’s Q2 2023 earnings call almost three years ago, Musk said that a global driverless ride-hailing service would have “quasi-infinite demand.” If Tesla can ensure safety and bring down costs, this makes sense, as people might forego buying their own cars and instead ride in mass-produced Teslas.

The company also has high hopes for its Optimus robot line, which it hopes to begin selling to the public at the end of next year. Tesla stopped making its premium Model S and X EVs in its Fremont, California, factory to make room for Optimus robot production, with hopes that the plant will produce 1 million first-generation robots annually. Tesla is also planning to make second-generation Optimus units at a Texas plant, aiming to produce 10 million units a year.

If these two projects achieve notable success, defined by scaled production, impressive functionality, and global adoption, Tesla’s revenue and profit could be astronomically higher in the future. And this can drive the stock price higher.

Today’s Change

(-0.86%) $-3.22

Current Price

$372.80

It’s possible that things don’t work out as the bulls hope

Tesla’s fortunes could get a total upgrade over the next 10 years. But I think it’s totally possible that a more pessimistic outcome becomes reality.

Despite its best efforts, Tesla’s robotaxi service is running only in Austin, Dallas, and Houston. Alphabet‘s Waymo, which is now completing 500,000 trips per week, is running laps around Tesla.

Optimus could also face delays, as Tesla has in the past, if the company fails to meet Musk’s optimistic timelines.

In 2036, there’s a chance this company will look much like it does today. This means it’ll be a mass market EV stock with an energy segment attached. The bulls want to avoid this scenario, as the shares could perform poorly.

After spending $8.5 billion on capital expenditures in 2025, Tesla is expecting its cash outlays to roughly triple to $25 billion this year. Management is aggressively investing in driverless technology and robots, as well as in artificial intelligence training and chips. Analysts expect free cash flow to be negative in 2026.

It’s clear that Tesla is going all-in on its vision. But a successful outcome is far from guaranteed.

And at a price-to-earnings ratio of 340, I think the downside is much greater than the upside, which is extremely uncertain given the company’s current situation. Tesla might disappoint investors over the next decade.