🐻 Bearish Takeaways

• BofA’s Underperform stance in its TransUnion and Cohen & Steers research shows that even when earnings come in ahead of expectations, some analysts stay cautious when they see tougher comparisons, headwinds in key end markets or what they view as full valuations. Translating that mindset to Trulieve Cannabis, a modest uplift in fair value does not prevent more skeptical analysts from focusing on execution risk, regulatory complexity or industry specific pressures.

• Oppenheimer’s decision to cut price targets, along with a downgrade to Perform for FICO while keeping TransUnion at Outperform with a reduced target, highlights how Street views can turn more guarded when they see regulatory uncertainty, product related risk or changing competitive dynamics. For Trulieve, that kind of commentary is a reminder that even small changes in assumptions around long term growth or profitability can feed into more conservative stances, limiting how far some analysts are willing to stretch their valuation work.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

• President Trump ordered Attorney General Pam Bondi to complete the process to move marijuana to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act by the end of January, explicitly referencing publicly traded operators such as Trulieve Cannabis, according to Marijuana Herald.

• Trulieve publicly backed the Trump Administration plan to reclassify marijuana to Schedule III, pointing to potential relief from Section 280E tax treatment and a wider scope for medical cannabis research. The company emphasized that the change would not legalize marijuana.

• On December 29, 2025, Trulieve closed a private placement that included 18 investors, adding another source of capital to support its business plans.

• The company guided to low single digit sequential revenue growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 and continued to build out its medical footprint with a new Trulieve branded dispensary in Findlay, Ohio, under a licensing agreement with Harvest Grows, along with conditional approval for a Dispensing Organization license in Texas under the Texas Compassionate Use Program.

• Fair Value: The fair value estimate has moved slightly from 19.025813 to 19.060341, reflecting only a very small adjustment in the model.

• Discount Rate: The discount rate is essentially unchanged at 6.446%, indicating no shift in the required return used in the valuation.

• Revenue Growth: The long term revenue growth assumption is stable at about 2.47%, with only a minor numerical refinement in the updated figure.

• Net Profit Margin: The long term profit margin assumption has edged up slightly from 4.779198% to 4.782208025%, indicating a very modest change in profitability expectations.

• Future P/E: The future P/E multiple has been trimmed slightly from 46.115997x to 45.3638573676704x, keeping the overall change to the valuation framework limited.

Narratives on Simply Wall St turn raw numbers into a clear story, linking a company’s business outlook to revenue, earnings and margin assumptions, then into a fair value that you can compare with the current share price. They sit in the Community page, are easy to follow, and update automatically when news, guidance or earnings arrive so you can see how the story behind the numbers is evolving.

If you want the full context behind Trulieve Cannabis and its fair value, the original narrative is the best place to start.

• Regulatory shifts, including cannabis rescheduling and potential banking reform, and how these could affect Trulieve’s tax burden, margins and access to capital.

• How branded products, tech enabled retail and changing consumer preferences tie into the revenue, earnings and P/E assumptions used to reach the current fair value.

• The key risks, from pricing pressure and regulation to geographic concentration and funding needs, that could challenge the narrative if conditions move against the company.

Follow the full Trulieve Cannabis Narrative on Simply Wall St here: TRUL: Retail Expansion And Rescheduling Progress Will Support Higher Future Earnings Multiples.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include TRUL.cnsx.

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