Diplomacy between Washington and Beijing is flipping Bitcoin bullish.

That’s according to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at UK-based bank Standard Chartered, who said that promising trade talks between the US and China as well as an all but locked-in Federal Reserve rate cut mark the end of Bitcoin’s downside.

If the Thursday meeting in South Korea between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping goes well, “Bitcoin may never go below $100,000 again,” Kendrick said in a note to clients.

Kendrick’s optimism comes as traders are positioning around a major geopolitical reset.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said over the weekend that China will suspend rare earth export restrictions for a year and buy more US soybeans in exchange for Washington dropping its threatened 100% tariffs.

And Kendrick is not alone in his trade war optimism.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said that US markets rose on Monday after a framework for a new trade deal was reported.

“That would amount to a ceasefire in their trade war, with both the US 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports and severe Chinese restrictions on their exports of rare-earth minerals and magnets to the US postponed. Hooray!” Yardeni said.

From panic to accumulation

The detente caps off a volatile month for crypto.

On October 10, Trump’s tariff threat and China’s export curbs triggered the biggest liquidation event in crypto history, with nearly $20 billion in positions wiped out in hours.

But unlike past crashes, the market has stabilised quickly, with Bitcoin less than 10% off of its all-time high set earlier in October.

“Big money and smart money have stopped selling,” Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto trading platform VALR, told DL News. “Whale wallets have added over 45,000 Bitcoin since the crash — that’s institutional accumulation, not panic.”

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew $636 million in inflows over the past five trading days, according to SoSoValue data.

Analysts now expect a 0.25% decrease in interest rates by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to amplify the rally in markets.

The CME FedWatch tool shows a 98% chance of a 0.25% cut in interest rates tomorrow. Data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket backs that sentiment up, showing a 98% chance of a cut.

Crypto market movers

• Bitcoin is down 0.7% over the past 24 hours to trade at $114,500.
• Ethereum is down 1% over the past 24 hours, trading at $4,115.

What we’re reading