Why is
crypto going up today? The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a strong
recovery rally today (Tuesday), November 25, 2025, with Bitcoin (BTC) price jumping
to $88,590 (up 1.6% in 24 hours), Ethereum rising 2.1% to $2,942, XRP surging
8% to $2.24, and Dogecoin gaining ground at $0.1525.

The total
crypto market capitalization has risen 2.4% to $3.1 trillion, adding $23.8
billion in value over the past day as investor sentiment improves from extreme
fear levels. The crypto surge is primarily driven by a shift in Federal Reserve rate
cut expectations, with odds jumping from just 40% last week to 82% for December
according to Polymarket and CME FedWatch data.

However,
this is most likely a dead cat bounce, and the cryptocurrency market could
quickly resume its decline. In this text, I provide a technical analysis of the
BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, XRP/USDT, and DOGE/USDT charts and outline what these
assets may face in the coming weeks.

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Bitcoin’s
price fell 1.3% Tuesday to $87,177, showing slight weakness but maintaining a
clear recovery from Friday’s turbulent session when
it crashed to just $80,000, a seven-month low. According to my technical
analysis, Bitcoin’s movement toward my target bearish range around $74,000
encountered a local accumulation zone at $83,000-$84,000 where a bullish pin
bar candle formed with a very long lower wick, showing rejection of further
selling by supply.

As a
result, we’re currently in a short-term corrective bounce which could reach the
$92,000-$94,000 zone marked in red on my chart, as
I mentioned in one of my earlier analyses. This is a typical bull trap and
dead cat bounce, so I’m still targeting lows around $74,000 coinciding with
this year’s minimum on Bitcoin’s chart. After testing this level, I intend to
accumulate Bitcoin assuming a return to uptrend and ultimately re-entering a
price discovery phase.

Bitcoin Technical Levels

Paul
Howard, Director at Wincent, provided institutional perspective on the current
market structure: “Indicators from the end of October where we saw whales
selling and tightening liquidity, led to the institutional basis trade unwind
and wave of ETF selling.”

“Dovetail
this with the year-end where we typically see books selling crypto for
reporting purposes, sentiment remains muted,” Howard continued. “I do
not expect we bounce back to $100,000 levels anytime before Q1.”

Ethereum Price Shows Death
Cross Warning Despite Support Defense

Ethereum’s
(ETH) price falls
2.5% today, testing session lows at $2,879 on Tuesday, though spot prices show
recovery to $2,942 with a 2.1% daily gain. On one hand, a very strong bearish
sell signal appeared in the form of a death cross, the 200-day EMA crossed from
above by the 50-day EMA, which
can signal medium-term declines of even 30-40% toward just $1,400, this year’s
lows last tested in April.

On the
other hand, ETH stopped clearly at the support zone I mentioned around $2,750,
which so far provides a place to bounce. However, there’s not much room as we
soon have the 50% Fibonacci retracement and also local November lows, and
shortly a resistance zone around $3,350 marked by August minimums tested again
in early October, not to mention the cluster of moving averages I mentioned.

Only a
return above this cluster will allow me to again believe Ethereum has demand
strength for further appreciation. For now I remain more bearish-biased on
Ethereum despite the short-term recovery bounce.

BlackRock has
been accumulating Ethereum through its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA), with
recent purchases totaling $72.5 million in October and larger accumulations of
$140.9 million in September. While spot Ethereum ETFs saw $1.64 billion in
outflows during November, institutional interest from the world’s largest asset
manager signals long-term confidence in ETH as a foundational asset for smart
contracts and tokenization.

XRP Price And Two-Day
Rally Within Bearish Structure

XRP price has two dynamic
days of consecutive gains behind it, including a remarkable 9% surge on Monday,
and on Tuesday the price corrects by a modest 1.6% and changes hands at $2.19,
with spot data showing $2.24 and an 8% daily gain. From a technical analysis
perspective, this two-day bounce allowed us to return to an important zone that
until recently acted as support, now acting as resistance in the range between
$2.18 and $2.29.

The fact
that we’re below the moving average cluster suggests for now we should expect a
bearish reaction and corrective decline again toward $1.90 support where on
Friday a bullish pin bar formed allowing the current bounce to materialize.
Like the two charts above, this is short-term for me and long-term I
maintain my bearish stance I mentioned some time ago due to death cross
formation, targeting a level of just $1.25 which was last tested one year ago.

Dogecoin Price: Support
Zone Defense But Death Cross Intact

Dogecoin (DOGE) notations fell
2.3% Monday and the cryptocurrency costs $0.1483 after rising for the last 2
days, bouncing from a support zone last tested in June. Recent declines on the
DOGE chart which we observed continuously from September peaks pushed the price
to my designated support zone between 14 and 15 cents, tested in March, April,
June and last time in October this year.

And
although it seemed Dogecoin might exit this range, which we witnessed including
last Friday, the price found support slightly lower, bounced and returns again
to this range showing that the long-term consolidation we’ve been observing
since February is still in play. Its main upper boundary falls around the 29-30
cents range, and according to swing trading principles we should be heading in
that direction.

However,
the technical situation is not in favor of buyers. Primarily we’re in a
downtrend as evidenced by simply being below the 200 MA moving average, not to
mention the
death cross formed in late October (sell signal from 50 and 200 MA
crossing).

For me to
start believing in a stronger Dogecoin bounce, it would need to return above
the 20 cents level and break the blue average; only then would I consider
playing long positions toward 30 cents, the level last tested in September.

Why Crypto Is Surging Today?

Federal Reserve Dovish
Pivot

The primary
driver behind why crypto is surging today is the dramatic shift in Federal
Reserve policy expectations. Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, explained:
“Market conditions appear to be realigning with the broader status quo,
particularly around Fed expectations. After a brief wobble driven by a hawkish
tilt that unsettled risk assets, the market is once again leaning toward
accommodation.”

The CME
FedWatch tool shows December rate cut odds jumped from 30% on Wednesday to
75.5% by Friday, following dovish remarks from Fed Vice Chair John Williams.
This represents a stunning reversal from the 22% probability economists
assigned just days earlier.

Institutional Flows and
ETF Launches

BlackRock’s
continued Ethereum accumulation through its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF,
including the $72.5 million October purchase, signals institutional confidence
despite recent market volatility. The asset manager views Ethereum as a
foundational layer for smart contracts, tokenization, and institutional-grade
Web3 infrastructure.

Technical Reset and
Oversold Conditions

Kruger
noted that “the market has now digested the recent setbacks, creating a
healthier backdrop and offering investors a chance to reenter at compelling
levels. Bitcoin has historically rewarded conviction during periods of
volatility, with significant pullbacks frequently preceding powerful moves to
new all-time highs.”

Crypto Price Analysis, FAQ

Why is crypto going up
today?

Crypto is
surging on November 25, 2025 due to Federal Reserve dovish pivot with rate cut
odds jumping from 40% to 82% for December, Monday launch of Franklin Templeton
and Grayscale XRP ETFs ($94M combined first-day inflows), BlackRock Ethereum
ETF purchases signaling institutional confidence, technical oversold bounce
after Friday’s crash to seven-month lows, and leverage unwinding stabilizing
the market.

What is Bitcoin price
prediction?

According
to my technical analysis, Bitcoin at $87,177-$88,590 is in bull trap bounce
potentially reaching $92,000-$94,000 corrective resistance before declining to
my ultimate target of $74,000 (2025 yearly minimum) for accumulation. After
testing $74K, I anticipate return to uptrend and price discovery phase.

Will XRP reach $3?

XRP at
$2.19-$2.24 after 9% Monday rally has returned to former support/current
resistance zone $2.18-$2.29. According to my technical analysis, this two-day
bounce appears corrective within longer-term bearish structure.

Should I buy crypto during
the dip?

This
depends on timeframe and risk tolerance. Bullish case: Fed rate cut odds 82%
for December, extreme fear (contrarian signal), institutional flows (BlackRock
ETH, XRP/DOGE ETFs $94M), technical oversold bounce, Kruger notes “Bitcoin
historically rewarded conviction during volatility” with pullbacks
“frequently preceding powerful moves to new highs.”

Are we in crypto bear
market?

Yes.
Bitcoin death cross, Ethereum death cross (50 EMA above 200 EMA), my technical
analysis targeting Bitcoin $74K/Ethereum $1,400, XRP and Dogecoin death
crosses, Paul Howard notes whale selling and institutional liquidation ongoing,
no $100K expected before Q1 2026.

Before you go, please also check my previous analyses and articles about crypto and gold: