Why do investors care about Ivory Coast’s election?

October 21, 2025

STORY: The world’s top cocoa producer Ivory Coast will vote in a presidential election on Friday with incumbent Alassane Ouattara widely expected to secure a fourth term.Here are the main issues investors are watching.:: Who is running?Ouattara faces off against four candidates including two government ministers, a former spokesperson for his predecessor Laurent Gbagbo, as well as Gbagbo’s ex-wife Simone Gbagbo.More notable, perhaps, is who isn’t running: Gbagbo himself, who is barred because of a prior conviction, and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam.A court has ruled that Thiam held French nationality when he registered, which Ivorian law does not allow.”It’s not for the government to decide who runs opposition parties, or who gets to run against them.”That leaves Ouattara heavily favored to win.He’s brushed off concerns about his age and health, saying Ivory Coast needs experience in the face of “security, economic and monetary challenges.”:: What are the economic challenges?Economically speaking, top of the list of those challenges is cocoa.It’s the lifeblood of the economy, but production is declining.Whoever wins the election will need to tackle the issues behind the drop such as shifting weather patterns, disease and destructive small-scale mining.Ivory Coast has a plan to combat the impact of climate change on the economy.However, it’s unclear how implementation will progress given dwindling climate financing for Africa.And the cocoa sector may also come under pressure from the European Union’s landmark anti-deforestation law.It has not yet taken effect, but would require EU importers to prove their products did not cause deforestation.:: Why do investors care?Nevertheless, Ivory Coast is one of the fastest growing economies in the region.Its international bonds are some of the best-performing in Africa.Market participants say that’s attracted investors who do not traditionally put their money into frontier debt.However, relatively new entrants may feel uneasy if election-related violence breaks out, in a country with a history of fraught polls.The 2010 election that brought Ouattara to power triggered a brief civil war that killed 3,000 people, after Gbagbo refused to accept defeat.Some 85 people died in clashes surrounding the 2020 vote, which the opposition boycotted over Ouattara’s decision to run for a third term despite a constitutional two-term limit.Investors will be watching this election closely to assess Ivory Coast’s democratic credentials.And that’s after Thiam dismissed the poll as a “coronation” of Ouattara, and called the exclusion of opposition figures such as himself an “abandonment of democracy.”

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