Why Is Bitcoin Price Not Rising? Whales Surge 11% as Saylor’s Strategy $2B Buy Fuels Concern

May 19, 2026

Kurt Robson

7 min read

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin whale wallets are surging despite weak price action.
Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin buying hasn’t triggered a breakout.
Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s path back to $100,000.

Bitcoin whale wallets have climbed sharply over the past year, even as prices remain volatile and sentiment among smaller traders weakens, adding to renewed debate over whether institutional accumulation could eventually drive the crypto back toward $100,000.

Despite the moves, Bitcoin’s price remains volatile, raising concern that institutional accumulation may eventually push it back above $100,000.

Santiment Reports Whale Surge

Data from the blockchain analytics platform Santiment showed the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin has risen to 20,229, up 11.2% from 18,191 a year earlier.

At current market prices, those holdings are worth roughly $7.7 million per wallet.

The increase suggests that larger investors have continued accumulating Bitcoin despite repeated market pullbacks and periods of heavy selling pressure.

Santiment said the trend was notable because growth in large-holder wallets persisted even during phases when retail traders appeared increasingly fearful.

Historically, rising concentrations of large holders have been interpreted by crypto traders as a signal of confidence in Bitcoin’s future value.

Strategy’s $2 Billion Purchase

The rise in whale accumulation comes as Michael Saylor’s Strategy intensified its own Bitcoin buying campaign through another multibillion-dollar acquisition.

The company recently raised about $2.03 billion through stock sales conducted under multiple at-the-market programs before deploying roughly $2.01 billion to purchase an additional 24,869 BTC.

Strategy bought the tokens at an average price of about $80,985 each, lifting its total Bitcoin holdings to more than 843,000 BTC.

Bitcoin Price Weakness Persists Despite Large Purchases

However, Bitcoin prices have struggled to respond to the aggressive buying activity.

Bitcoin has remained under pressure in recent sessions, trading well below previous highs despite continued accumulation by corporate buyers and long-term holders.

On-chain data has also pointed to a broader increase in long-term holding behavior.

CryptoQuant data cited by CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju showed Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has climbed back to roughly 15.26 million BTC, with more than 316,000 BTC added over the past month.

Analysts generally view rising long-term holder supply as bullish because it suggests more coins are moving into wallets unlikely to sell in the near term.

Adam Livingston: Strategy’s Buying Is Small Relative to Market Volume

Some crypto participants argued that Strategy’s acquisitions, while headline-grabbing, represent only a small fraction of weekly bitcoin trading activity.

Author and Bitcoin commentator Adam Livingston pushed back against complaints from traders questioning why prices were not surging after Strategy’s latest purchase.

“Strategy just bought about 25,000 coins,” Livingston wrote on X, estimating that reported spot BTC trading volume currently averages around 3 million BTC per week across major market trackers.

“25,000 BTC is about 0.82% of 3.04 million BTC weekly spot volume,” he added.

He argued that the scale of global trade makes it difficult for a single buyer to raise prices immediately.

Other users on X challenged Livingston’s comparison, saying Strategy’s over-the-counter purchases differ from retail-driven exchange activity.

“Strategy buy OTC which is a totally different market to retail which Binance control. Two markets, two prices, different supply and demand,” one user wrote.

Can Bitcoin Price Return to $100,000?

Despite the accumulation trends, some market analysts remain skeptical that Bitcoin will revisit $100,000 anytime soon.

Motley Fool analyst David Jagielski said Bitcoin’s outlook still depends heavily on broader macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments.

“Bitcoin is a speculative asset, and thus, a lot will hinge on the outlook for the crypto markets,” Jagielski wrote.

He said that lower interest rates could support demand for risk assets, while persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs could continue to weigh on prices.

“It’s difficult to determine where Bitcoin may go since a lot ultimately depends on government actions,” he added.

Adding: “While Bitcoin might one day get back to $100,000, I don’t think that’ll happen anytime soon.”

It comes shortly after crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin could eventually revisit levels below $60,000 and potentially fall toward $40,000 later this cycle as macroeconomic pressures persist.

“My guess, unfortunately, is that the bear market is unlikely to be over,” Cowen said during an appearance on the Mr. M Podcast.

Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle structure still points to continued weakness into late 2026.

Despite the bearish outlook, Cowen acknowledged that even a drop toward $40,000 would still represent a smaller correction than Bitcoin experienced in previous bear markets, which saw drawdowns exceeding 70% to 90%.

Bitcoin Price Bulls Remain

VanEck head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel argued last week that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold and equity markets.

He suggested the crypto could climb to around $160,000 if it regains historical valuation relationships tied to the so-called Buffett Indicator.

“Bitcoin looks cheap,” Sigel wrote on X.

“If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we’re looking at $160,000, and that’s just catching up to where equities already are,” he added.

The comments came shortly after Sigel said in a CNBC interview that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years.

“We think this asset’s gonna reach a million dollars over the next several years,” Sigel said, describing such a scenario as VanEck’s “base case.”

Last month, investor Mike Alfred directly rejected Benjamin Cowen’s prediction that Bitcoin could revisit levels below $60,000.

“You’re going to be wrong this time. Sorry buddy,” Alfred wrote in response on X.

Alfred has repeatedly argued that current market conditions do not resemble a traditional crypto bear cycle,

“You can’t have a real bear market and crypto winter without an actual bull market,” Alfred said in a separate April post.

“Until you see real unadulterated exuberance, no bear.”

He added that many investors had been “fooled” by recent price weakness and warned they may end up “chasing hard in the coming months as everything rips.”

Others also pointed to tightening Bitcoin supply and growing institutional accumulation as potential catalysts for a sharp upside move.

Joe Burnett, director of market research at Unchained, suggested Bitcoin could be approaching a major supply squeeze.