Why SpaceX (SPCX) Could Trade Like Tesla On Steroids
June 10, 2026
When SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) trades on the Nasdaq for the first time on Friday June 12, most investors will reach for a comparison to make sense of it. The one that fits best is arguably already in plain sight, and it happens to share a founder.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has spent much of its public life trading less on what it earned and more on what people believed it might one day become. A devoted retail base, a founder who could move the share price with a single post, and a story big enough to challenge most common valuation methods. Earnings mattered, but the narrative usually held the wheel. Even now, Tesla has a monthly volatility (measured as beta) of 1.80. This basically means that, on average, the company’s stock moves 1.8% for every 1% the market rises. SpaceX is about to walk onto that same stage, and a few things suggest its swings could be wider, not narrower. Wide enough that products already exist to trade them at double the speed, like the Defiance SPCU 2X SpaceX ETF
Scarcity plays a big part in any price. The entire luxury industry operates on this premise. SpaceX has been one of the most sought-after private companies on earth for a decade, and until now ordinary investors simply could not own it. That changes on June 12, when the SpaceX trade will be within reach of anyone with a brokerage account.
Then there is the space economy story itself, which makes Tesla’s autonomous vision look modest in comparison. Starlink does the heavy lifting on the numbers, at roughly 60% of revenue in FY25, but the story leans on the parts that still need to be demonstrated: Starship, Mars, and orbital data centers. With an expected $1.75 trillion valuation (around 95 times its FY25 revenue) on an oversubscribed $75 billion raise, much of the market capitalization is attributable to the belief of what’s yet to come.
And it is brand new. A freshly listed stock has no settled trading history to anchor to, so it tends to be volatile while the market contends with establishing a baseline fair value. Mix in a cult following, and a prospectus that reads like something straight out of Star Trek, and you just might have the recipe for a stock that could move like Tesla in ‘Ludicrous Mode’.
For some, that volatility is the appeal. It has not gone unnoticed by product makers, either. It is partly why leveraged vehicles such as the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SpaceX ETF (SPCU) have been built around the SpaceX trade, designed to double its daily moves. The trouble is that doubling a swing feels brilliant on the way up and punishing on the way down, and these leveraged funds don’t behave like owning the share itself.
That is a distinction worth understanding before being tempted by the potential of heightened volatility. Our article on what the SPCU 2X SpaceX ETF does, and doesn’t do aims to shed further light on the intricacies of these unique ETFs – the mechanics, the catch, and the single-day holding period it is designed around. That way, the choice, whatever it is, can be made with a clear head.
This will be an exciting moment for a lot of investors. Whether you get involved, and how, is entirely your call. Just make sure you know what you’re stepping into, and try to keep emotion out of the driver’s seat. The excitement is the easy part, the steady thinking is the bit you’ll thank yourself for later.
The article was written independently by the author, without issuer input or approval. Defiance Analytics has a marketing services agreement with Simply Wall St, further details on compensation and other important information, please see our disclosure and disclaimer at [LINK to Article].
Please see the preliminary prospectus for more information. Subject to completion. Short-term investment. Leveraged funds carry significant risk. The information in the Prospectus is not complete and may be changed. The Trust may not sell these securities until the registration statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is effective. This is not an offer to sell these securities and is not soliciting an offer to buy these securities in any state where the offer or sale is not permitted. The Fund does not directly invest in the underlying stock. Not suitable for all investors. Investment involves significant risk.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Leveraged ETFs are not suitable for all investors and are designed to be used by knowledgeable investors who understand the consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results. The Fund rebalances daily; for periods longer than a single day it will lose money if the underlying security’s performance is flat, and may lose money even if the underlying security’s performance rises over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of their investment within a single day. The Fund should not be expected to provide two times the cumulative return of the underlying security for periods greater than a day. The Fund does not directly invest in the underlying stock. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. See the prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully before investing.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
Simply Wall St analyst Mitch Lawler and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Terms and Privacy Policy
Search
RECENT PRESS RELEASES
Related Post
