Welcome to Trade Secrets — Bitcoin and Ether price predictions from top analysts, along with options data, sentiment analysis and prediction markets to determine what they can tell us about the months and years ahead.

There’s a decent chance that Bitcoin will end the year above $173,000, according to economist Timothy Peterson, citing BTC’s closing price on Sunday and historical data since 2017.

“September 21 marks the date — after which — Bitcoin finishes the year higher 70% of the time,” economist Peterson said on X. “The median gain is over 50%,” he added.

With Bitcoin’s price reaching an intraday high of $115,879 on Sunday, a 50% increase from there would place its price around $173,000. (Let’s ignore the price tanking on Monday for the sake of simplicity.)

Peterson explained that the pattern didn’t hold in three of eight years, including 2018 and 2022, which were already “well-established bear markets.”

“So the odds are probably closer to 90%,” he said. The price almost aligns with VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, who predicted Bitcoin would reach $180,000 by year-end. 

However, it falls short of the more optimistic forecasts from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s director of market research, Joe Burnett, who both projected $250,000.

What will happen after Bitcoin peaks continues to be widely debated within the industry. 

Magazine checked in with Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen regarding his prediction last week that Bitcoin could eventually drop up to 70% from this cycle’s all-time high. He stands by it. “Probably somewhere between a 66% to 74% drop in the bear market,” Cowen tells Magazine.

“But that is a 70% drop from whatever the all-time high is, not necessarily from the current high,” he reiterates.

Ether has dropped nearly 8% over the past 30 days, but Tesseract CEO James Harris remains confident that the asset’s ability to stay above $4,000 could sustain momentum and potentially trigger another rally.

“The next resistance sits around $4,650-$4,700; a break there could quickly open the way toward $5,000,” tells Magazine. Ether trades around $4,207 at the time of publication.

However, Harris says that Ether may experience volatility in the short term. “Rate cuts are generally liquidity-positive and supportive for risk assets, but they can also signal weaker growth and weigh on valuations, particularly when prices are already elevated,” he says.

“Rate cuts are a double-edged sword — they boost liquidity, but they also signal softer growth. Add to that ETH’s sharp rally already from the sub $1,400 low, and profit-taking or pullbacks are natural risks.”

Harris has a $6,500 year-end target.

Meanwhile, Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee recently said that monetary liquidity sensitivity, global central banks’ easing and strong seasonality will drive the prices of Ether and Bitcoin.

“I think they could make a monster move in the next three months … huge,” Lee said.

Oct. 1 marks the start of Q4, which has historically delivered an average return of 23.85% for ETH, the second-worst-performing quarter of the year, according to CoinGlass. A 23.85% increase from Ether’s current price would bring it to roughly $5,370.

Traders should not expect an instant price surge in XRP as a reaction to the recent launch of the XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, according to a crypto analyst.

“Investors expecting an immediate XRP pump might end up disappointed,” Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal tells Magazine.

On Sept. 18, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR), which tracks XRP, launched and saw $37.7 million in volume, according to data from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and Cboe.

Hundal says the reported volumes into XRPR are “decent,” but traders should stay cautious. “Strong ETF flows didn’t stop sharp sell-offs in Bitcoin and Ethereum after their spot funds were approved,” he says.

However, Hundal is optimistic that REX and Osprey’s ETF launch is just the beginning. “I don’t think there’s any reason to believe any of the XRP applications won’t get through after REX-Osprey approval,” he explains.

“They both registered double-digit drawdowns. If history is any guide, the new ETFs for altcoins like XRP could trigger a similar bout of profit-taking before markets stabilise,” he adds.

Some analysts are super bullish on the asset heading into the end of the year. Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto recently said, “Based on the fractal formation analysis, it suggests that by mid-November, XRP could be around $6 to $7.”

Solana may reach new all-time highs by the end of October, says Derive head of research Dr. Sean Dawson.

“SOL has a ~30% chance to hit $300 by the end of October and a 10% chance to surge past $350,” Dawson tells Magazine, citing Derive’s options data.

With Solana currently trading at $220, a move to $300 would represent an increase of 36%, according to CoinMarketCap. It would also just top its all-time high of $294, which it reached in January.

Dawson points to the recent adoption of Solana from digital asset treasuries as a potential for “significant upward price action for SOL.”

Forward Industries (FORD), originally a medical and technology design firm, recently raised $1.65 billion in private funding and used the proceeds to acquire SOL for its reserves. Meanwhile, Nasdaq-listed Brera Holdings rebranded as Solmate after raising $300 million in an oversubscribed private investment in public equity to launch a Solana-focused digital asset treasury and infrastructure company.

Bitcoin traders shouldn’t assume the asset will quickly return to all-time high levels, according to sentiment platform Santiment.

“Retail sees a straight path toward $120K+ again. But we may want to pump the brakes on a continued rally, at least right away,” Santiment said in a recent report.

The platform said that the value of average active wallets has risen about 3.5% over the past 30 days, while yearly growth is around 16.1%. “Both of these signal a mild amount of risk in buying or adding on to your position at this time,” Santiment said.

Santiment added that Ethereum is “seeing a slightly better opportunity in jumping in for a short-term rally” as traders over the past 30 days are up just 1% on average. 

However, Ether’s mid-year rally has pushed the 1-year MVRV to 37.4%, suggesting that “Bitcoin is mathematically a much safer bet if you plan on hodling the rest of 2025.”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which tracks overall market sentiment, slipped back to “Fear” on Monday with a score of 45, following a week of “Neutral” readings. This signals crypto market participants are unsure of where the market is heading next.

However, the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index tells a different story.

The Index, which alternates between “Altcoin Season” and “Bitcoin Season” depending on how the top 100 altcoins have performed relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, recorded a score of 67 out of 100, indicating the market is in risk-on mode.

TradingView data shows that capital isn’t flowing heavily out of Bitcoin, with Bitcoin Dominance down just 0.05% over the past month, currently at 58.33%.

Onchain options protocol Derive founder Nick Forster tells Magazine that futures traders are speculating on higher prices for major crypto assets as the end of the year approaches.

Future traders are pricing in a 42% chance of Bitcoin reaching above $120,000 by the end of October, and a 35% chance of reaching over $135,000 by Dec. 31.

Forster points out that there is a “large cluster of calls” around the $145,000 to $170,000 price level for Bitcoin by the end of October, signaling a healthy amount of traders positioning for “major upside.”

As for Ether, future traders are pricing in a 30% chance that Ether reaches above $5,000 by the end of October, and a 15% chance Ether hits above $7,000 by the end of December.

Forster warns traders to “expect volatility to rise and the battle for DeFi liquidity to escalate.”

Prediction markets have grown increasingly bullish over the past 30 days, with Q4 — Bitcoin’s historically strongest quarter — now just days away.

With the end of the month just a week, the odds of Bitcoin breaking its August all-time highs of $124,100 by the end of September are just 3%, according to crypto prediction platform polymarket.

But by Dec. 31, the chance jumps to 61%, up 11% over the past 30 days.

Meanwhile, the odds of other major cryptocurrencies reaching highs before the end of the year have also surged over the past month.

Solana has a 53% chance of surpassing its previous peak of $293 by the end of 2025, up 11% from its odds last month as its price spiked 8.5% over the same period.

Ethereum has 61% odds of breaking its $4,878 all-time high by the end of this year, up 5% from its odds last month, despite its price declining 12% over the same period.

BitcoinBlockchainCryptocurrenciesEthereumXRP

Read also

Hodler’s Digest

Ripple says SEC lawsuit ‘over,’ Trump at DAS, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 16 – 22

by
Editorial Staff
7 min
March 22, 2025

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says the SEC lawsuit is “over,” Donald Trump speaks at Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit: Hodler’s Digest

Read more

Asia Express

Singapore ‘not ready’ for Bitcoin ETFs, sneaky crypto mining rig importer: Asia Express

by
Yohan Yun
5 min
July 11, 2024

Singapore isn’t in a rush to list crypto ETFs, according to SGX CEO this week as Philippines charges two over a $6M XRP hot wallet hack.

Read more