A fresh XRP/BTC chart released on 12 June by the market technician known as Dr. Cat has injected new controversy into one of crypto’s most stubborn trading pairs. The analyst, posting to X, argues that despite a bruising six-week slide, conditions still favour an eventual breakout for XRP that would leave Bitcoin lagging. He assigns the scenario a formidable 70 percent probability.

XRP Vs. Bitcoin: 70% Chance Of Breakout, But When?

At the heart of Dr. Cat’s thesis is the 2,041-satoshi level, where three separate Ichimoku timeframes—monthly, bi-monthly and tri-monthly—intersect. “The price keeps eating support after support with no reaction from bulls at all as if supports don’t exist,” he concedes, but he stresses that this specific shelf is “the most important support.”

Candles on the attached one-month chart already hover fractionally below the line; a decisive monthly close beneath it, he warns, would flip the three-day structure fully bearish and scatter the pair into unpredictable, possibly chaotic ranges.

Even so, the strategist insists history is on the side of XRP bulls. “Price has spent years performing very well and coiling up with higher lows for this attack now,” he writes, framing the past twelve quarters as a prolonged accumulation that has never surrendered its series of macro higher lows.

That coiling, he believes, will allow XRP to mount at least a “minor … attack in August” toward the 3,000-satoshi region—roughly a 45 percent appreciation from current levels—and perhaps fuel a “much bigger attack” once the broader market cycle matures.

The optimism is not unqualified. Dr. Cat calculates a 30 percent chance of a complete flop if 2,041 sats fails on a monthly-close basis. Under that bearish branch, the cross could slice toward 1,800 – 1,900 sats, attempt a feeble rebound, or continue a “slow bleed all the way down to the bottom of the range where it started the monster move.” In such a setback, he would not expect the long-anticipated “monster bullish move” until Q4 2025 at the earliest.

For the moment, therefore, the market hangs on a single number. Hold above 2,041 and Dr. Cat sees a clear shot at outperforming Bitcoin—first modestly, then dramatically.

Slip beneath it, and the road map dissolves into what he bluntly calls an “unpredictable/choppy” expanse. Either way, XRP traders now know exactly where the cycle’s pivot resides and precisely how thin the margin for error has become.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.1287.