Why care? Wall Street’s already clawed back the March losses and sits close to new peaks, even with the Strait of Hormuz—an artery for roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas—still partially shut. Treasury yields are hanging near 4.32%. The market’s still betting the Federal Reserve won’t move rates this year. Any jolt in oil or a diplomatic stumble, though, could knock equities hard.
The cash session Thursday left little room for follow-through. S&P 500 managed a 0.26% gain, settling at 7,041.28. The Nasdaq fared a bit better, tacking on 0.36% to finish at 24,102.70. Both indices notched fresh all-time highs for a second day running. That makes it 12 straight sessions higher for the Nasdaq, a run not seen since July 2009. “You’ve got markets fluctuating between more positive and slightly neutral headlines,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, told Reuters. Reuters
Netflix shares slumped after its latest results. The company said Q1 revenue climbed 16% to $12.25 billion, and its full-year outlook remains at $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion. For the current quarter, Netflix is guiding for 13% revenue growth. One notable change: chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings will exit the board in June. “The departure of Reed Hastings has spooked investors,” LightShed Partners’ Richard Greenfield said. Co-CEO Greg Peters, however, remains bullish and argues the subscriber tally could top 325 million paid memberships by the end of 2025.
A handful of companies moved against the overall softness. TSMC and ASML both lifted their full-year guidance this week, bolstering faith that demand for AI infrastructure remains robust. Reuters described the updates as a plus for Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, citing TSMC chief C.C. Wei’s assessment: “AI is so strong.” The chipmaker is now allocating more capital to expand production. Reuters
Corporate earnings keep giving the market a lift. Analysts polled by LSEG are now looking for S&P 500 companies to turn in $605.1 billion in first-quarter profits, Reuters reports, topping the $598.7 billion they had forecast heading into the quarter. “Momentum begets momentum, and new highs are a sign of momentum,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group. Reuters
Still, the rally could easily give way. Robert Phipps, director at Per Stirling Capital Management, flagged how uncommon it is for stocks to hit new highs without circling back to “go[ing] back and retest.” On top of that, Reuters reported U.S. and Iranian negotiators are chasing a short-term agreement, not a full peace—underscoring the thin margin for error. Reuters
Friday lands with several variables in play: markets are watching for any fallout from weekend diplomacy, keeping tabs on crude, and gauging whether Netflix’s slide breaks the Nasdaq’s 12-session winning streak. Nerves aren’t frayed, yet settled they’re not.
