​​​A 2025 headline in one of Colombia’s national newspapers was one of many signalling alarm about gas’s prospects in the country. Translated in English, it read, “Companies are returning to coal due to the lack of natural gas in Colombia: such is the panorama and in 2026, it could get worse”. This headline reflects recent public debate​,​ highlight​ing​ uncertainty and lack of consensus​​about the role of gas in the country’s future. This debate has only become more acute with the pressures the war in Iran is inflicting on global oil and gas trade, and the development of a fledgling gas import relationship with Venezuela.

And, startlingly, it misses the main question: Why extend gas dependency while there are other more economically and environmentally sustainable alternatives? And when geopolitical events show time and time again the precarity of our fossil fuel-dominated energy system? 

The dominant framing portrays an imminent crisis in gas supply, calling for urgent action to avoid shortfalls. Recent estimates indicate that national fossil gas reserves may not last more than six yearsand that gas imports will be needed to cover the growing demand and minimize supply shortages. Yet, this approach can harm gas consumers in the long term, given that a reliance on imports is likely to increase consumer prices. High ​​gas​​ dependency in Colombia​ has meant that existing energy transition plans do not consider the possibility of significantly reducing its gas demand as gas reserves shrink. This generates greater risk of fossil gas ​​​lock-in​, and the serious economic, health, and environmental damage it brings – all while the country aims to reach net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Consequently, the government should redirect attention from increasing the national gas supply to tackling the real issue: Colombia’s dependence on fossil gas.

The first Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands from 24–29 April in Santa Marta, Colombia, is an opportunity to set concrete steps for both Colombia and other countries to reduce fossil fuel dependencies, including around gas.

Beyond Colombia’s energy context, unpredictability around price and availability of imported gas, as we now see due to the war in Iran, create upheaval in energy planning and also must be considered. A recent analysis by Carbon Brief shows wide-ranging policy responses to the current unfolding energy crisis, with some countries returning to coal and others reducing fossil fuel taxes, which can deepen fossil dependencies. However, in some cases, countries have responded by furthering commitments to renewable roll-out to bolster energy security.

These rapid geopolitical and economic changes could add a layer of uncertainty to Colombia’s gas supply if the country plans to continue its reliance on international gas imports. This crossroads presents an opportunity to reduce gas dependence and avoid being subject to international gas markets’ fluctuations.

Colombia’s​gas panorama

Historically, Colombia’s demand for gas was sparked as a response to the 1992–93 electric power outages, caused by a high reliance on hydropower. A dry season and subsequent low water levels made it nearly impossible to generate electricity. The crisis spurred an energy diversification strategy that could withstand water resource fluctuations. Then-attractive gas prices and increasing demand from industry, residential, petrochemical and transport sectors directed investments towards gas infrastructure and gas distribution network expansion, including beyond the electricity sector. Today, gas is also used in thermal power plants to back up the electricity system during dry seasons. In 2024, Colombia again suffered droughts, which limited hydropower generation and spiked demand for gas-fired thermal power. ​​

Colombia’s​​power system​, which relies primarily on water and fossil fuels, which​ has ensured reliability and competitive costs, but reveals a vicious cycle in the context of climate change. The country is highly vulnerable to climate variability​: During droughts, and system reliability depends heavily on thermal plants fuelled by natural gas and coal​​, ​​the very fuels that aggravate the climate crisis.

This vulnerability is compounded by the steady decline in natural gas reserves since 2012, from 5​​727 ​​giga cubic feet (​​Gcf​​​),​​​ to just 2​​​​064 ​​​​Gcf in 2024 – a 64% drop. ​Geological evidence suggests that Colombia has already tapped its largest gas fields, yet public debate often avoids this reality. Such denial hinders the policy focus on what is truly needed: accelerating the diversification of the power matrix through the country’s vast renewable energy potential. Colombia’s geographic location favours a natural synergy between hydropower, solar radiation and wind, which provides a strategic advantage: When rainfall decreases, solar and wind availability often increase.

Over the years, Colombia’s gas narrative has evolved. Today, gas is embraced in sectoral and government discourse and planning as an essential piece of Colombia’s energy transition. Scenarios to 2050 rely on gas and stress national gas self-sufficiency for energy security. The scenarios are built under the assumption that the introduction and roll-out of renewables such as solar and wind will, in parallel, need proven gas reserves and investments to cover for possible fluctuations in the electricity supply. Although there is some truth ​to ​that assumption,alternatives other than fossil gas exist to stabilize a renewables-dominated electricity system. These include electricity storage solutions using batteries and hydropower, but also through operational, demand and supply-side flexibility, and couplingthe power sector with otherbroader energy-intensive sectors, such as heating and transport. However, important gains can also be made in reducing demand by improving energy efficiency in the industrial sector and electrification in the residential sector (such as in cooking and water heating).

The 2024 National Just Energy Transition scenarios, published by Colombia’s Ministry of Mines and Energy, project the country’s fossil gas demand will rise to back up the electrical power system, to substitute for coal and petroleum in industrial uses, and to supply residential and transport demand. The Just Energy Transition scenario considers that the country will reach peak gas demand in 2040 and projects that these fuel substitutions could reduce GHG emissions in Colombia’s energy system well before 2030, potentially enabling the country to increase its climate ambition. Yet, this scenario differs from the estimations included in the 2022–2052 National Energy Plan provided by the Mining and Energy Planning Unit of Colombia (UPME), which more conservatively predicts an emissions peak after 2030 and a less steep decline in GHG through 2050. Both the government and Ecopetrol, Colombia’s national oil and gas company, plan to expand gas production in the next 15 years to supply this demand.  

President Gustavo Petro has publicly opposed signing new oil and gas exploration contracts in favour of promoting the country’s transition away from fossil fuels, though this has been heavily contested by many on both the left and right, even within his own government.​​Concerns over declining gas reserves and the government’s reluctance to sign new contracts for gas (and oil) exploration have led industry players, including Naturgas, the national gas association, to advocate for new gas fields exploration, while also calling for the governmentto modify existing regulations to better facilitate gas imports for both industrial and domestic users. However, the association has not detailed the gas sector’s long-term transition strategy beyond 2040. The gas industry risks failing to anticipate and prepare for a future energy matrix dominated by renewables. Additionally, expanding gas supply may hinder the country’s 2050 net-zero goal, a target established by national law in 2021. 

Why is increasing dependence on gas a problem? 

The push for continued gas supply and new infrastructure development risks investment in what could become an expensive stranded asset for the country.

Prospective offshore discoveries in Colombia to supply gas for domestic consumption will likely require costly initial investments due to the greater cost of infrastructure for deep sea exploration compared to onshore. For Ecopetrol, safeguarding the return on investments will be necessary for their economic viability. However, studies indicate that under the country’s current gas prices, offshore projects will yield a negative return on investment. To be commercially viable, fossil gas either will need to be sold at higher price​s​ than consumers expect or be subsidized by the Colombian government to keep prices low, endangering the transition away from fossil energy sources.

Global projections suggest​​that oil demandwill peak by 2030, coal demand will begin to decline before this, and gas demand will peak closer to 2035. Failure to ​develop ​long-term plan​s that ​adapt to the​se​ expected changes in the global gas market and continued investment in future stranded assets may compromise Colombia’s economy and risk the wellbeing of communitiesdependent on the developed gas infrastructure.

Efforts to expand exploration and exploitation of new gas reserves clashes with a critical means of achieving the Paris Agreement’s ambition to limit rising global temperatures: a rapid decline of global fossil fuel supply. Gas contributes to the climate crisis, leading to more frequent andsevere climate impacts in Colombia. Furthermore, fossil gas production and use negatively affect health and the respiratory system.

In a hydrologically typical year, thermal plants account for around 30% of national gas demand, concentrated in barely a dozen facilities. More than 70% of this demand comes from just four plants located on the Caribbean coast.

​​Here lies another paradox: ​​​Colombia’s​​​ Caribbean region, which enjoys the best solar and wind resources in the country,​​​​​is also the most dependent on gas-fired generation. Changing this dynamic is already part of the national agenda. The Transmission Mission, led by UPME, sets out a roadmap to modernize the grid, enable the massive integration of variable renewables, and deploy complementary technologies such as power storage. These measures ​could ​create a positive reinforcing circle, progressively displacing natural gas, reducing carbon lock-in risks, and strengthening the resilience of Colombia’s power system.

Despite environmental and economic risks, fossil gas has, in some cases, allowed remote and vulnerable communities to shift from even more-polluting wood fuel. Relatedly, the government recently approved a law aimed at securing gas access for vulnerable households. Therefore, a transition away from gas should not ignore potential negative effects on the most vulnerable. A poorly managed phase-out risks social and economic costs, including disruptions to employment in gas-related industries, energy price volatility that disproportionately affects low-income household​s​ and potential strain on power generation that could hamper economic growth. These considerations highlight the complexity of balancing decarbonization goals with just transition imperatives in Colombia.

The bridge to a fossil-free future

The narrative in Colombia of a gas supply crisis has prompted calls to increase domestic gas production, justified by the misleading idea that gas is a low-carbon energy source. However, gas remains a fossil fuel whose production and consumption must decline significantly to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Furthermore, focusing narrowly on supply shortages diverts attention from the structural issue: Colombia’s continued dependence on oil and gas. This short-term mindset risks reinforcing rather than resolving carbon lock-in by directing investments and policies towards further entrenching gas dependence.

Addressing today’s supply constraints must not come at the expense of long-term planning and support for renewables and truly low-carbon alternatives. Instead, Colombia should prioritize building a resilient and equitable energy system aligned with climate commitments  

The national debate around gas reserves reveals a troubling gap in forward-looking strategies and incentives to accelerate the shift towards renewable energy. While gas is often presented as a bridge fuel, there is no plan for how to move beyond that bridge – risking a costly scenario where Colombia remains stuck mid-transition, reinforcing fossil fuel dependency instead of dismantling it. Developing clear pathways and institutional support for moving decisively toward renewables and away from gas is essential not only to avoid deepening fossil fuel dependency, but also to seize the opportunity for a just and sustainable energy future. The Santa Marta Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels is an opportunity to lead in that direction.