Cracks in the lower Snake River dams
May 23, 2026
||| FROM LINWOOD LAUGHY |||
Cracks in the four lower Snake River dams? Not literally, but metaphorically weakening and widening.
Over the past five years, according to Army Corps of Engineers’ data, these dams combined generated an average of just 669 Megawatts (MW) each year, a decline of 29% compared to average annual production over the previous twenty-one years. Of the total Pacific Northwest’s 26,145 MW power load, each dam now produces about six-tenths of one percent (.6%).
Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) 2026-2028 wholesale price for electricity the agency sells to Pacific Northwest public utility districts is $40/Megawatt hour.
Over the past fifteen years, the cost of utility-scale solar energy has plummeted 85%. The Berkeley National Laboratory reports Power Purchase Agreements in the West (excluding California) provide power at around $24/Megawatt hour.
Over the past decade, the cost of utility-scale battery storage has declined even more than that of solar energy. In some states, battery storage is now replacing natural gas-powered turbines as the preferred means of addressing peak electricity demand. Further, new hybrid installations combine solar with battery back-up, which negates the argument that solar energy cannot provide firm power.
The U.S. Energy Administration reports that the Pacific Northwest has witnessed the slowest growth in solar energy of any region in the U.S. In a state-by-state comparison of the rate of renewable energy growth between the decades 2005-2014 and 2015-2024, the state of Washington comes in dead last.
Consider this as an explanation: BPA owns 75% of the Pacific Northwest’s transmission capacity, providing a near monopoly on transmission services. Since 2015, the developers of 469 large alternative energy projects have sought access to BPA’s transmission grid. Only one received approval. Clearing Up/news data reports the number of proposed projects in BPA’s interconnection request queue represents 61,000 MW of renewable energy. If just 15% of these projects were developed, the resulting generation capacity would equal that of twelve lower Snake River dams.
In 2026, the state of Washington established a transmission authority with a mandate to expand Washington’s power transmission capabilities. State officials recognize the potential for tapping into cheap solar energy from the Southwest, wind energy from the Mountain West, as well as homegrown wind and solar. The state of Oregon is considering similar action.
Meanwhile, threatened and endangered Snake River salmon and steelhead numbers continue to fall. The Nez Perce Tribe’s Fisheries Department warns that a growing number of these fish stocks are approaching quasi-extinction. The states of Washington, Oregon, four tribal nations and a number of conservation organizations are now back in federal court. Ordering extended spill as a preliminary measure, U.S. District Judge Michael Simon notes that wild salmon are “disappearing from the landscape.”
In a world with less snow, earlier runoffs, falling fish numbers and cheap solar energy, dark clouds have gathered over the Bonneville Power Administration. BPA’s costs of production are rising, while power output is falling. Solar energy, less and less intermittent, has become the West’s cheapest power source, with utility-scale prices well below BPA’s wholesale rate. The agency’s near monopoly on transmission appears to be slipping away.
A notable fish scientist, Dr. Rick Williams, recently opined “The lower Snake River dams will never be breached for biological reasons; they will only be breached for economic reasons.”
Like cracks in a dam, those economic reasons have arrived.
Citations:
1. 669 MW of power NWD US Army Corps of Engineers Power Summary Reports https://www.nwd-wc.usace.army.
2. 26,145 MW PNW power load Bonneville Power Administration 2024 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study https://www.bpa.gov/-/media/Ae
3. BPA Power Rates https://www.bpa.gov/energy-and
4. Power Purchase Agreements at $24/MWh Berkeley Lab https://emp.lbl.gov/news/explo
5. Utility-scale battery prices BloombergNEF Record Lows for Battery Prices https://emp.lbl.gov/news/explo
6. Washington dead last in alternative energy growth U.S Energy Information Administration embedded in Oregon Public Broadcasting How the Pacific Northwest’s dream of green energy fell apart, https:/www.opb.org/article/202
7. BPA 75% PNW transmission capacity What the Bonneville Power Administration is and does https://www.opb.org/article/20
8. 61,000 MW Renewable energy in queue. Clearing Up/ news data: Hairston Stepping Down at BPA. https://www.newsdata.com/clear
9. Washington Transmission Authority https://www.catf.us/2026/03/wa
10. Nez Perce Tribe’s quasi-extinction report: Snake Basin Chinook and Steelhead Quasi-extinction Threshold Alarm and Call to Action, https://www.nwcouncil.org/site
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