Most of the recent conversation around Apple (AAPL +0.59%) has centered on artificial intelligence (AI). At its annual developers conference this week, the tech giant walked through a long-awaited overhaul of its Siri voice assistant and its broader Apple Intelligence AI features — and investors weren’t especially impressed. After touching an all-time high of about $317 earlier this month, shares have eased back to around $291 as of this writing.

But for a company worth about $4.3 trillion, where the iPhone still brings in about half of all revenue, the more important near-term question may have little to do with AI. It could come down to hardware — and specifically, whether Apple can keep its current upgrade wave going while adding something genuinely new to the lineup.

There’s reason to think it can.

The iPhone’s recent momentum

In its fiscal second quarter of 2026 (the period ended March 28, 2026), Apple’s iPhone revenue rose 22% year over year to about $57 billion — a record for the March period. And that capped a streak that began the moment the iPhone 17 arrived.

The iPhone 17 lineup launched last September. Apple set a September-quarter iPhone record to close out fiscal 2025, then turned in its best iPhone quarter ever over the holidays, before the 22% jump in the most recent quarter. In fact, demand actually ran ahead of what the company could build, with Apple pointing to component shortages as a limit on how much iPhone revenue it could book.

What stands out, though, is who is buying. Apple said it set a March-quarter record for iPhone upgraders, and its installed base of active devices — already more than 2.5 billion — climbed to yet another all-time high.

“With iPhone 17, we’re seeing a strong response not only from customers upgrading from previous generations, but also from people choosing iPhone for the very first time,” said CEO Tim Cook in the company’s fiscal second-quarter earnings call.

But can this important segment keep up its momentum? I think so.

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Why a foldable iPhone could matter

Apple usually refreshes its lineup in the middle of September, and this year should be no different. But this fall’s update could carry more weight than most iPhone upgrade cycles. According to multiple reports, Apple may introduce its first foldable iPhone alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, marking the biggest change to the iPhone’s design since the iPhone X arrived in 2017.

While it’s unclear how a foldable iPhone would be priced, there’s some speculation it could have a starting price north of $2,000, which would make it the priciest iPhone Apple has ever sold.

This means that not only could unit sales be bolstered by the introduction of an entirely new form factor, but average unit prices could rise, too.

Of course, a rumored foldable iPhone’s success isn’t in the bag. First of all, there’s no guarantee it will come to market this year. And on a similar note, Apple could run into unexpected manufacturing challenges that limit production volume. In fact, some reports already point to possible delays.

Then there’s the stock itself. At a price-to-earnings ratio of about 35 as of this writing, Apple continues to command a premium valuation. In addition, the iPhone 18 will also be measured against the strongest iPhone cycle in years, which sets a high bar.

So the main story worth watching this fall may not be Siri AI anyway. It’s the hardware — and not only the foldable iPhone, but the broader iPhone 18 upgrade cycle it would arrive with. If Apple can keep upgraders coming back the way it has over the past three quarters, that may matter more to the stock than anything its new Siri can do.