Rivian (RIVN 9.77%) is making big moves. For example, it has increased capacity at its Georgia plant to 300,000 vehicles. It got another $1 billion in cash from key partner Volkswagen. And it provided employees with the first batch of its new, mass-market focused R2 trucks. The R2 could be a make-or-break product for the company.

Rivian is at a pivotal point in its development

Rivian started with high-end trucks, which proved it could build electric vehicles at scale. It has also generated a gross profit, proving that it can sell its trucks for more than it costs to build them. However, the scale of the business needs to expand if the company hopes to turn sustainably profitable. Ramping up production is the big goal with the R2, which costs less than the high-end R1 truck already in production.

Essentially, the company needs to spread its operating costs over more vehicles. This is the same path Tesla (TSLA 6.43%) took to become sustainably profitable. Rivian has strong backers, including Volkswagen, and ample cash, noting that it expects to receive the first advance on a $4.5 billion loan from the U.S. government in early 2027. The R2 is coming to market, and Rivian will have plenty of financial leeway to see the effort through.

Rivian’s big question mark: Will consumers buy the R2?

Rivian’s stock has fallen roughly 90% from its post IPO highs. Investor enthusiasm for the EV sector has cooled off, noting that every major auto company is now playing in the space. Competition is more fierce than it was when Tesla built its business. So it is reasonable that Wall Street is taking a show-me attitude with Rivian.

Rivian Automotive

Today’s Change

(-9.77%) $-1.77

Current Price

$16.35

That said, the company has executed very well as a business. And it could be on the brink of an important business change. It all depends on how well the R2 is received. If consumers buy the new truck, Rivian could turn into a millionaire-making stock. If consumers don’t buy the R2, well, Rivian’s future will be cloudy, at best.

Most investors should probably wait for early R2 sales results

When you step back and look at the big picture, Rivian is a high-risk start-up. Only the most aggressive investors should probably buy it. Most investors should adopt the same show-me attitude that the market has taken. However, if you are adventurous and believe the R2 will be a success, buying now before sales figures for the new truck roll in will likely maximize your upside.